The voting bodies of the Screen Actors Guild and the Academy are about as close you're going to get. The odd thing has been the years of absolute parity and those of marked discrepancy.
Perhaps as a signal of this trophy's personality, the inaugural telecast saw immediate inconsistency with the Academy -- Jodie Foster's "Messa-tay, chicka-bay" win for Nell as opposed to Jessica Lange's Oscar for Blue Sky.
Most notably in this particular award season is that dear Annette Bening took the SAG for American Beauty but the Oscar got Swanked. Swan or not, will the SAG settle it? Frankly, I think this one goes right down to the envelope in far more Kidman vs. Zellweger fashion than any of the former Bening vs. Swank battles of yesteryear.
The SAGs also seems to do little to settle contentious supporting categories. Not only have off the wall people taken the SAG trophy -- Robert Duvall A Civil Action -- in years past, the Actor has gone to a slew of folks who didn't win at previous ceremonies -- Kate Winslet for Sense and Sensibility, Johnny Depp's Jack Sparrow, Meryl Streep for Doubt. They've also had those years where people were mis-categorized and lost -- Jennifer Connelly for A Beautiful Mind -- and the years where people were mis-categorized and won -- Benicio del Toro for Traffic.
So what does tonight square? It seems the Actor only confirms consistency or corrects Globe wonky-ness. The categories are no longer separated, there are no runners-up. And if The Fighter takes ensemble, "Picture" will remain a mystery.... If it's The King's Speech, well, February 27th gets a bit of edge.
Annette -- my heart's with you.
- Matthew J. McCue
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