Nomination Eve

Tomorrow trumpets blare, ten flat screen televisions alight -- that's right, TEN -- and the head of the Academy strolls out with some Oscar winner -- usually a supporting actress -- and then we're off to the races. But who will it be? So. Many. Possibilities.

The Ten Best Picture Nominees:


The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
The King's Speech
The Fighter
Winter's Bone
127 Hours

Thats seems like what it's going to be, right? I wonder about Shutter Island and Another Year.

There's always some film that gets left out for absolutely no reason despite a strong showing throughout the year -- 500 Days of Summer, Dreamgirls, Walk the Line -- and there's always some picture that finds its way to the dance based on cast performance -- The Reader, An Education, The Blind Side. So, I wonder what on earth will happen.

I also wonder -- since these things are alphabetical -- whether we'll all be stunned right off the bat when we hear the nomination of Alice in Wonderland. But I'll stick to my list.

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech


David O. Russel could bump someone here considering he's a DGA nominee. But I don't see this year being a "5 to 5" nominee match. As much as I wouldn't necessarily be "shocked" if the Coens weren't nominated -- they seem like this year's late arrival. And True Grit is nothing short of bad-ass.

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

I wonder about Julianne Moore most of all. Halle Berry and Hillary Swank less so. Those seem to be the five. If Jennifer Lawrence isn't nominated in this category, I'd be stunned to see Winter's Bone in the picture category. Perhaps Michelle Williams -- but if she's out, I'd be surprised to see Ryan Gosling, much as he seems to be gaining momentum as this generation's Sean Penn.

Best Actor:
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Get Low has people wondering. I don't know about this. The field is very tight this year and I would be surprised to see an actor as out of this generation and spotlight as Robert Duvall get a nomination. But the Academy does love the old. For some reason, this year's old seems to be Jeff Bridges.

Frankly, what I'm wondering is whether Leo or Gosling bumps someone and who that someone would be. I have a hard time thinking that a year with this much Fighter hype would leave Wahlberg out of the mix. I could see Franco being bumped if only because he's also the host for the evening. But the man seems like he's the only thing at the bottom of that Grand Canyon crease. Thus -- I wonder where Leo or  Gos goes.

Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Mila Kunis, Black Swan

This category seems pretty locked up nation-wide. I wonder if Julianne Moore could somehow slide into the supporting slot here? Is she being considered as "Lead" on the various "For Your Consideration" materials? A supporting stab would have been her best chess move.

Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network


I wonder if Damon can slide into this category. I also realize banking on a Garfield nomination may seem improbable -- but besides Geoffrey Rush, he's the most deserving of a nod. So one must give the boy the cosmic benefit of the doubt including him on this molecule sized blog gives.

Adapted Screenplay:
The Social Network
True Grit
Rabbit Hole
The Town
127 Hours


My question is whether Toy Story 3 fits into this category because it includes pre-existing characters. Whichever category includes it, I could easily see Michael Arndt bumping a nom.

I could also see Winter's Bone finding a happy home in this category. The most vulnerable two up there seem to be The Town -- which at least on this coast seems to have lost its award momentum --  and Rabbit Hole -- much as I would love David Lindsay-Abaire to be an Oscar nominee.

Original Screenplay:
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Black Swan
The Fighter


If Oscar History has demonstrated anything, it's that this is the category where the smiling -- never winning -- Mike Leigh's bearded little head pops up time and time again. Another Year could well slide in as a nod to the entire picture. But who does that bump? This year's race may be too strong to nominate an oft-nominated writer who is soon definite for an honorary award when it's clear he won't be victorious. Thus, I omit him here.

We'll see tomorrow!

- Matthew J. McCue