Well, it was just in a little blog entry like this, one earlier than my remarkably brief tribute to the ever-lovely Jodie Foster that the prediction was made...
If you have Daniel Day-Lewis and Hugh Jackman win...
If you have Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence win...
Then you have no advancement on who leads in the Oscar game. I'll concede D-Day has the edge. But let's not jump to any conclusions just yet.
Leo lost... not surprised... I keep pulling for him... not surprised. Remember to only play cards against me, never with me. I lose. But the Waltz win was a surprise. Though he was the best actor in the film -- you act as if that actually matters when it comes to these things -- Waltz played the same exact part in Inglorious Basterds. He did it masterfully in both, but if you are going to actually talk to me about the fact that these two men had different moral backgrounds and were consequently different characters -- then you've lost your mind. They were played precisely the same. Hey, if it ain't broke...
But Waltzing to the podium come Oscar time doesn't seem like it will be so easy. I think it will go to Tommy Lee Jones -- probably because he looked so chipper last night. Have you ever seen a happier chap? I mean, shit, if you can't take a Hope Springs joke, I don't know where you hid the summer Batman and Robin was released (let along the Eckhart reminder).
Anne, of course, won.
Quentin's screenplay win was a surprise and will most definitely remain at the Globes. I will be stunned if Quentin beats out Mark Boal, Wes Anderson and Michael Haneke (though his is probably the Foreign Language Film Oscar). The truth is Q hasn't won in a long time and has continued to deliver hit films for 18 years since his Pulp Fiction victories. Could be he's due. Last year went to a man who was... the Wood man himself... much deserved for Midnight in Paris. That victory seems far more clean cut to me and as if it were up against less stiff competition. Here's the chance to give Zero Dark or Moonrise something. But maybe Chastain's that chance and here's the category to give Django something. I'm just saying, don't let last night go to your head, Quentin. Though I doubt you let much go to your head. Right?
Score, as always, a curve-ball. Danna's work is great. And I'll speak in depth about the overall beauty of Ang Lee's Life of Pi when I cover the pictures individually.
Song. Adele. Duh. And what a great speech.
Amour. Not a surprise.
And then it comes to the very McCue predicted Argo sweep. Affleck holds and Argo blocks to create predictability issues. Why yes... there have been a great many years where the drama winner at the Globes has not aligned with the Oscar.
Bugsy went on to be Silence of the Lambs
Scent of a Woman went on to be Unforgiven
Sense and Sensibility went on to be Braveheart
We stuck true for a while. But the mid-aughts brought another set of splits.
The Aviator becoming Million Dollar Baby
Brokeback turning into the not even Globe nominated Crash
Babel being the film to top the Oscar winning Departed
Atonement going No Country
Avatar, The Social Network... hell, the recent victories have only stuck for Slumdog and The Artist -- which was a "comedy." Bringing me back to ...
Les Miserables took comedy last night. Might not seem like a big thing to everyone, but it sure as hell seemed like a big thing when The Artist and Chicago took comedy. I'm pulling for it. But I might have a better chance hauling in the ship at the film's opener than this thing does of winning. I'm just point out the Les Miz-ness of it all ...
Because otherwise you've got a situation on your hands where you've got to completely chuck not only the picture winner, but the director winner. They did it to Fincher. They did it to Cameron. That's two out of three in the expanded field years. However, the enormous striking difference is that at least Fincher and Cameron went on to be Oscar nominees.
Hold that phrase, dear -- "went on to be."
Last night we rolled through a Globes ceremony where we knew Affleck "sure as hell wasn't" nominated for director. That die was cast.
Side note: I've often thought the phrase should be interchangeably "The die is cast" or "The dye is cast." Either way you're screwed and its irreversibly up to the fates.
A film without its director nominated does not win the Academy Award. The failure to lock a directing nomination is about the only thing more fatal than not locking a writing or an editing nomination. These are the keys to the picture win. Directing being the key-est of keys.
A lack of directing has been a death sentence. In recent years to...
Moulin Rouge, Atonement, Little Miss Sunshine...
... and countless more if you want to look back.
Or at least they have been the "keys" and a lack of directing has been the "death sentence."
But now we're in the era of 10 (i.e. "9") nominees. So we have to look at how things have gone since.
Bigelow's Hurt Locker triumph was one thing. But Bigelow's film was at least both nominated in all categories at both ceremonies.
When The King's Speech dipped its sails and went for gold, it was Cap'n Harvey at the wheel. It was nominated at both ceremonies, too. However it turned one performance win into a veritable Oscar sweep. One wonders if that is remotely possible with Silver Linings Playbook. Is it, world? Really?
Could it actually be possible that Argo somehow pulls this thing off because of the Affleck sympathy vote? Who doesn't want a telecast that ends with both Clooney and Affleck holding trophies for a movie we all enjoyed? It's Oscar history.
For a film to win the Oscar without having a directing nomination means that the Academy is willfully acknowledging the failure of their own voting system and how that results in picture, director, etc. nominees. It could be the Academy, while feeling bad for Ben and Bigelow -- after all, everywhere they go, people know they're not nom-inated, but they're Ben and Bigelow: Oscar lives without 'em -- don't particularly care. Yes, that sentence without the lyrics is that the Academy may just not care about Ben and Bigelow. I could see it with KB and with Tom Hooper -- you just won director -- like just before the French silent guy... so could you?... please?
But Ben's a whole other kinda thing. People sure ate it with a spoon when the Academy trophied Affleck up the first time.
So why not enjoy yourself and put Argo back in the race -- hell, you could even think Zero Dark has been given hope by the Globe wins for the other Middle-East film.
Either that or you're looking at Bradley Cooper in a Hefty Bag going up against Steven Spielberg's Tony Kushner's Dorris Kearns Goodwin's Lincoln (which I deeply enjoyed). To me, last night says don't count your chickens. Don't count out or on anything. There are a few locks... but why say their names in this piece and jinx anyone?
Affleck's out. But perhaps Argo isn't. And that directing race is widening by the day. Unless I'm crazy and Lincoln's got it all logged up.
Monday, January 14, 2013
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Jodie Foster's Rather Early DeMille
Tell me, Clarice, did you expect to be receiving lifetime achievement at age 50?
My love of Jodie Foster stems back further than I can imagine and knows no bounds. This mythic lady is obviously difficult to write about in too glowing a fashion considering the terrors of her youth. One doesn't want to ever cross path a line that simply states how incredible a performer she is, what an amazing woman, and what an endless interesting creative creature she proves to be.
As far as Globes go, she's a 7 time nominee and 2 time winner. Her victories for 1988's The Accused and 1991's The Silence of the Lambs matching her two Oscar wins.
Jodie is one of those Hollywooders movie fans wish would work more. Her choices are few, deliberate. Often they're mistaken - often they're simply too similar to something she's already done. But for every Sommersby -- giant sprawler of a film that really didn't amount to much (ahem, Anna and the King) -- there's a Panic Room and an Inside Man great adult thrillers that slipped through very quickly and you all should give another glance.
Obviously Jodie's roles of amazement are Taxi Driver (surprisingly not Globe nominated), The Accused, and Silence of the Lambs. Film stars who've risen to Oscar and Globe victory for similar roles during Jodie's lifetime simply don't hold a candle. The amount of performances obliterated by her work as Sarah Tobias in The Accused and Special Agent Starling in Silence of the Lambs.
Someone takes a run at similar roles every year. Often they win awards for it. But Jodie set the standard.
I will keep this love letter to Jodie brief. Let me just say I hope Mel Gibson is presenting her award. I hope people make serious fun of Nell and don't just focus on, well, her Beaver.
My love of Jodie Foster stems back further than I can imagine and knows no bounds. This mythic lady is obviously difficult to write about in too glowing a fashion considering the terrors of her youth. One doesn't want to ever cross path a line that simply states how incredible a performer she is, what an amazing woman, and what an endless interesting creative creature she proves to be.
As far as Globes go, she's a 7 time nominee and 2 time winner. Her victories for 1988's The Accused and 1991's The Silence of the Lambs matching her two Oscar wins.
Jodie is one of those Hollywooders movie fans wish would work more. Her choices are few, deliberate. Often they're mistaken - often they're simply too similar to something she's already done. But for every Sommersby -- giant sprawler of a film that really didn't amount to much (ahem, Anna and the King) -- there's a Panic Room and an Inside Man great adult thrillers that slipped through very quickly and you all should give another glance.
Obviously Jodie's roles of amazement are Taxi Driver (surprisingly not Globe nominated), The Accused, and Silence of the Lambs. Film stars who've risen to Oscar and Globe victory for similar roles during Jodie's lifetime simply don't hold a candle. The amount of performances obliterated by her work as Sarah Tobias in The Accused and Special Agent Starling in Silence of the Lambs.
Someone takes a run at similar roles every year. Often they win awards for it. But Jodie set the standard.
I will keep this love letter to Jodie brief. Let me just say I hope Mel Gibson is presenting her award. I hope people make serious fun of Nell and don't just focus on, well, her Beaver.
Cocktails and Trophies... it's Globe Night!
After the tumult from this week's Oscar nominations, where a couple of curve balls in Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild and a couple of eye-poppers when Bigelow, Affleck, and Hooper went un-nominated, tonight's Hollywood Foreign Press Awards take on a weight they've never had.
Gone are the days of the Globes airing, a few week gap, and then the Oscar nominations.
Gone are the days when the Globes were presented Sunday and the Oscar noms the following Tuesday.
We've crossed through the looking glass, and in what AMPAS hopes will steady the ship of their own awards, tonight we will watch a room full of Oscar nominated and non-nominated duke it out for what may be the only trophy they'll see -- or what will be the perfect signal to the world that they've got momentum and are an Oscar force to be reckoned with.
Though the Academy thought eclipsing the telecast with their nominations would somehow lessen the influence between Globe and Golden Boy, it seems that may have blown up in their faces...
Or...
Tonight we could watch a telecast where...
Jackman and Lawrence take the comedy trophies
Day-Lewis and Chastain take the drama trophies.
Leo takes supporting -- and is Oscar Nom-less.
Anne Hathaway takes supporting (as she will throughout everything, sorry Amy Adams).
And anyone but Spielberg wins director... especially if it's Bigelow or Affleck (the more likely of the two).
Should that go down you will have the two front runners in the lead categories with a Globe a piece. You'll have the Academy's "we all already have Oscars" supporting acting category remaining an utter guessing game. And you'll have the Oscars for director and picture still flying in the air.
Do I think this will happen? When it comes to the acting categories, I do. I also think Affleck will more than likely with director. Leo... seems like a lad I'm always pulling for but who doesn't get awards. But the Globes have liked Leo in the past. He's their kinda guy.
PREDICTIONS!
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
This category seems down to Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty when one looks out toward Oscar-land. And yet, there is a part of my guy that can't even believe how HFPA it would be to hand the trophy to Argo and Bugsy-up the joint (you're welcome, 1991).
Three questions...
Is it a Lincoln sweep?
Does the world want to laud or ignore the bin Laden movie?
Is the HFPA such a bunch of star f-ers that they're going Argo?
I'm going to say forget Zero Dark and will put my money on Lincoln. But if Argo wins, there will be no surprise. We'll just know we're either going to make Oscar history or the Globes have taught us nothing when it comes to the picture race.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Les Miserables.
Should the Globe go to Silver Linings Playbook, we may be looking at an Oscar race of Crash proportions. Of all the things the Globes are doing tonight, the most they should be doing to legitimize what will be Harvey's play for a Silver Lining victory at the Oscars, is to give Jennifer Lawrence actress.
This picture category is such a Globe lock it's stunning. A Miz miss would be a shocker.
BEST DIRECTOR
I would be stunned if the Hollywood Foreign Press didn't give Ben Affleck a chance to slap on his cockeyed smile and maybe even get a little tearful before talking about the hard work done by the CIA and who the real heroes are.
Then everyone can stand up and clap. Ben can make an off color joke. We can all wonder if he'll run for office some day -- rather than whether he actually should.
If Spielberg wins here, it means he's walking all the way to the bank.
The one exciting thing is that director is often a category where the Globes split with Oscar. It is certainly a category where they split with their own pictures -- leaving three sets of film makers as victors.
I expect that split in the form of Daredevil tonight.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty.
Were Emmanuelle Riva nominated here, I would wonder about Chastain's odds. But Jessica's relatively free and clear. In fact, her strongest competition is Naomi Watts in a film with quite European roots that shows an international disaster. And she did a hell of a lot more than linger in the corner, certain of her convictions -- um, how about when they dragged her, still wounded, through the debris... do you remember that?
But this is 90% Chastain with a less than 10% chance of Wattsage. The fact that Ewan wasn't nominated for The Impossible definitely lowers Watts' shot.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln.
We could all start getting cocky about how he's won too much and so forget it - it could be, I don't know Richard Gere in Arbitrage! No. It's going to be Daniel Day-Lewis for his mind-blowing performance as Abraham Lincoln. It's going to happen.
The only one with a shot at toppling him is Joaquin, a boy who the Globes have shown love when Oscar failed to.
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook.
No doubt Katniss snags the trophy for this O. Russell hoot.
There's always a chance for Maggie Smith or Judi Dench at such a thing. But the HFPA loves a beautiful lady. Consider Lawrence a lock.
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Sound the trumpets, it's Hugh Jackman in what may be the only major film acting award he receives. Period.
An amazing speech here -- which I'm certain he'll give -- could sway Oscar hearts. I think Hugh's charm level tonight will show his chances against D-Day. Then again, that assumption never worked for that other Hugh... Grant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonard DiCaprio, Django Unchained.
Tommy Lee Jones will win this Oscar. So it would be no surprise if he started that march here. But I think HFPA goes Leo. It gives him a chance to thank Quentin - an HFPA favorite. And it gives them a chance to show that they're the cooler hipper awards.
Truly this awards is Hoffman's. I doubt he will see many victories this year and that's a shame. He is, after all, The Master. Opting to slide into the supporting category was wise as the award season wouldn't tolerate both Joaquin and Hoffman in the same race for the Anderson film. But the man was astounding.
Also interesting to note, while in this category, that the shift from this race to Oscar is DeNiro bumping Leo, not Arkin. Thus I suppose I should look back on my Oscar predictions and say I suppose what I thought was happening was DeNiro knocking out Arkin; my fear, of course, being that Leo would be collateral damage. In the end, he was. As he is in nearly every one of his films.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This award is absolutely Anne Hathaway's. Period.
Amy Adams could take a stab at it. Or Sally Field. But this one goes to the lovely Anne as the factory worker gone French whore ... who suffered so very deeply... her hair didn't grow back in heaven.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
It's between Amour and Intouchables. I would say Amour takes it. But given the nature of the Hollywood Foreign Press... this is a category where the rules and winners are often starkly different from Oscar. Take a look at the fact that there are two nominees from France. HFPA doesn't opt for that "only one official submission per nation" biz. Consequently, the race is quite different.
But it seems Haneke's win, nonetheless.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Ah yes, the combined screenplay category where adapted and original fare in the same bout.
This is between Mark Boal, Tony Kushner, and Chris Terrio.
A Terrio win could mean an Argo all around or it could mean "this is the award your film will be receiving - please enjoy the remained of the telecast."
Kushner probably has the adapted screenplay Oscar in the bag. Topping all the other films here would seem to solidify that win.
And then there's the masterful work of Mark Boal. Though it may seem similar to his work on Hurt Locker, this screenplay is far superior -- the work of a master.
I'm knocking Boal out of the race and saying it's between Terrio and Kushner.
I'm picking Terrio.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I have great hopes for Wreck-It Ralph, but I believe this one goes to Frankenweenie.
Remember that the awards for Foreign Film and Animated Feature go to the directors, not the producers as is the case in the Best Picture categories. Thus, this proves yet another place to award a film maker.
Last year they handed one to Spielberg for Tin Tin. Expect Tim Burton to grace the stage tonight.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Music is a place where the Globes and Oscars split because they have entirely different qualifying rules.
However, I would expect this to go to Alexandre Desplat. He's got a shot at the Oscar, too. Nearly has it locked down.
Then again, I'm not going to be upset to hear John Williams give a speech. I just highly doubt it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Well, well... if it isn't a year where there actually are a couple of pretty good songs.
The winner will be Adele's "Skyfall."
HFPA likes awarding stars, even when their music is lousy -- sorry Madonna, it's true. This year they've got a rock star doing a Bond song... and it's actually the best movie song of the year.
Bond songs are historically Oscar losers. None of them has ever one. This could swing that ship.
I obviously have a great love of television and would like to go through all those awards, too. But that's not what this blog is about. So let me just say...
Danes. Lange. Looking for Louis-Dreyfus to top Dunham... but am worried. Greenfield would be a shock to watch pull it off. Otherwise... we'll see how it goes.
Gone are the days of the Globes airing, a few week gap, and then the Oscar nominations.
Gone are the days when the Globes were presented Sunday and the Oscar noms the following Tuesday.
We've crossed through the looking glass, and in what AMPAS hopes will steady the ship of their own awards, tonight we will watch a room full of Oscar nominated and non-nominated duke it out for what may be the only trophy they'll see -- or what will be the perfect signal to the world that they've got momentum and are an Oscar force to be reckoned with.
Though the Academy thought eclipsing the telecast with their nominations would somehow lessen the influence between Globe and Golden Boy, it seems that may have blown up in their faces...
Or...
Tonight we could watch a telecast where...
Jackman and Lawrence take the comedy trophies
Day-Lewis and Chastain take the drama trophies.
Leo takes supporting -- and is Oscar Nom-less.
Anne Hathaway takes supporting (as she will throughout everything, sorry Amy Adams).
And anyone but Spielberg wins director... especially if it's Bigelow or Affleck (the more likely of the two).
Should that go down you will have the two front runners in the lead categories with a Globe a piece. You'll have the Academy's "we all already have Oscars" supporting acting category remaining an utter guessing game. And you'll have the Oscars for director and picture still flying in the air.
Do I think this will happen? When it comes to the acting categories, I do. I also think Affleck will more than likely with director. Leo... seems like a lad I'm always pulling for but who doesn't get awards. But the Globes have liked Leo in the past. He's their kinda guy.
PREDICTIONS!
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
This category seems down to Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty when one looks out toward Oscar-land. And yet, there is a part of my guy that can't even believe how HFPA it would be to hand the trophy to Argo and Bugsy-up the joint (you're welcome, 1991).
Three questions...
Is it a Lincoln sweep?
Does the world want to laud or ignore the bin Laden movie?
Is the HFPA such a bunch of star f-ers that they're going Argo?
I'm going to say forget Zero Dark and will put my money on Lincoln. But if Argo wins, there will be no surprise. We'll just know we're either going to make Oscar history or the Globes have taught us nothing when it comes to the picture race.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Les Miserables.
Should the Globe go to Silver Linings Playbook, we may be looking at an Oscar race of Crash proportions. Of all the things the Globes are doing tonight, the most they should be doing to legitimize what will be Harvey's play for a Silver Lining victory at the Oscars, is to give Jennifer Lawrence actress.
This picture category is such a Globe lock it's stunning. A Miz miss would be a shocker.
BEST DIRECTOR
I would be stunned if the Hollywood Foreign Press didn't give Ben Affleck a chance to slap on his cockeyed smile and maybe even get a little tearful before talking about the hard work done by the CIA and who the real heroes are.
Then everyone can stand up and clap. Ben can make an off color joke. We can all wonder if he'll run for office some day -- rather than whether he actually should.
If Spielberg wins here, it means he's walking all the way to the bank.
The one exciting thing is that director is often a category where the Globes split with Oscar. It is certainly a category where they split with their own pictures -- leaving three sets of film makers as victors.
I expect that split in the form of Daredevil tonight.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty.
Were Emmanuelle Riva nominated here, I would wonder about Chastain's odds. But Jessica's relatively free and clear. In fact, her strongest competition is Naomi Watts in a film with quite European roots that shows an international disaster. And she did a hell of a lot more than linger in the corner, certain of her convictions -- um, how about when they dragged her, still wounded, through the debris... do you remember that?
But this is 90% Chastain with a less than 10% chance of Wattsage. The fact that Ewan wasn't nominated for The Impossible definitely lowers Watts' shot.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln.
We could all start getting cocky about how he's won too much and so forget it - it could be, I don't know Richard Gere in Arbitrage! No. It's going to be Daniel Day-Lewis for his mind-blowing performance as Abraham Lincoln. It's going to happen.
The only one with a shot at toppling him is Joaquin, a boy who the Globes have shown love when Oscar failed to.
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook.
No doubt Katniss snags the trophy for this O. Russell hoot.
There's always a chance for Maggie Smith or Judi Dench at such a thing. But the HFPA loves a beautiful lady. Consider Lawrence a lock.
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Sound the trumpets, it's Hugh Jackman in what may be the only major film acting award he receives. Period.
An amazing speech here -- which I'm certain he'll give -- could sway Oscar hearts. I think Hugh's charm level tonight will show his chances against D-Day. Then again, that assumption never worked for that other Hugh... Grant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonard DiCaprio, Django Unchained.
Tommy Lee Jones will win this Oscar. So it would be no surprise if he started that march here. But I think HFPA goes Leo. It gives him a chance to thank Quentin - an HFPA favorite. And it gives them a chance to show that they're the cooler hipper awards.
Truly this awards is Hoffman's. I doubt he will see many victories this year and that's a shame. He is, after all, The Master. Opting to slide into the supporting category was wise as the award season wouldn't tolerate both Joaquin and Hoffman in the same race for the Anderson film. But the man was astounding.
Also interesting to note, while in this category, that the shift from this race to Oscar is DeNiro bumping Leo, not Arkin. Thus I suppose I should look back on my Oscar predictions and say I suppose what I thought was happening was DeNiro knocking out Arkin; my fear, of course, being that Leo would be collateral damage. In the end, he was. As he is in nearly every one of his films.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This award is absolutely Anne Hathaway's. Period.
Amy Adams could take a stab at it. Or Sally Field. But this one goes to the lovely Anne as the factory worker gone French whore ... who suffered so very deeply... her hair didn't grow back in heaven.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
It's between Amour and Intouchables. I would say Amour takes it. But given the nature of the Hollywood Foreign Press... this is a category where the rules and winners are often starkly different from Oscar. Take a look at the fact that there are two nominees from France. HFPA doesn't opt for that "only one official submission per nation" biz. Consequently, the race is quite different.
But it seems Haneke's win, nonetheless.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Ah yes, the combined screenplay category where adapted and original fare in the same bout.
This is between Mark Boal, Tony Kushner, and Chris Terrio.
A Terrio win could mean an Argo all around or it could mean "this is the award your film will be receiving - please enjoy the remained of the telecast."
Kushner probably has the adapted screenplay Oscar in the bag. Topping all the other films here would seem to solidify that win.
And then there's the masterful work of Mark Boal. Though it may seem similar to his work on Hurt Locker, this screenplay is far superior -- the work of a master.
I'm knocking Boal out of the race and saying it's between Terrio and Kushner.
I'm picking Terrio.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I have great hopes for Wreck-It Ralph, but I believe this one goes to Frankenweenie.
Remember that the awards for Foreign Film and Animated Feature go to the directors, not the producers as is the case in the Best Picture categories. Thus, this proves yet another place to award a film maker.
Last year they handed one to Spielberg for Tin Tin. Expect Tim Burton to grace the stage tonight.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Music is a place where the Globes and Oscars split because they have entirely different qualifying rules.
However, I would expect this to go to Alexandre Desplat. He's got a shot at the Oscar, too. Nearly has it locked down.
Then again, I'm not going to be upset to hear John Williams give a speech. I just highly doubt it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Well, well... if it isn't a year where there actually are a couple of pretty good songs.
The winner will be Adele's "Skyfall."
HFPA likes awarding stars, even when their music is lousy -- sorry Madonna, it's true. This year they've got a rock star doing a Bond song... and it's actually the best movie song of the year.
Bond songs are historically Oscar losers. None of them has ever one. This could swing that ship.
I obviously have a great love of television and would like to go through all those awards, too. But that's not what this blog is about. So let me just say...
Danes. Lange. Looking for Louis-Dreyfus to top Dunham... but am worried. Greenfield would be a shock to watch pull it off. Otherwise... we'll see how it goes.
How'd My Oscar Nom Predictions Go?
All in all, I would say that I did pretty damn well.
After my brief little history lesson about how this whole mess stems back to a war between Spielberg and Weinstein... and how the "up to 10" nominations would certainly land us with nine pictures in the running for film of the year... it looks like we've ended up with just that...
Harvey's got to have all his money on Silver Linings.
Spielberg's got to have all his money on Lincoln.
And we've still got seven more pictures duking it out.
PICTURE NOMS...
Nailed it on...
1. The number of films
2. Seven of the nine film titles.
Though I don't like giving alternates, I always do. And of the three alternates I supplied two slunk in to fill the final two slots where I erred... Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
It seems the Academy more fondly remembers Beasts as the summer indie and Moonrise was forgotten. That's an actual surprise to me. The Master not being there is only a surprise because of how well-represented it was in other categories.
DIRECTOR NOMS...
Called it that this would be the category where if something went crazy... it would go quite awry.
Besting Entertainment Weekly, I at least had 3 of the nominees -- but that was purely because I left Affleck off my list. The truth is the lack of Affleck, Bigelow, and Hooper makes little sense. Yes, Hooper and Bigelow are the second and third most recent directors to win. But so what? The question is whether their films have been rendered powerless without both picture and director nominees.
I believe no film has ever won without its director at least being nominated. Splits happen on a routine basis. We may see that this year. But to win without a director nom -- historically impossible. Are Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Miserables hamstringed by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild?
It is nice to see the Academy remember the daring director of a smaller film in the nominating of Beasts' Behn Zeitlin. And it is always wonderful to see the Academy salute a powerful director from world cinema in Michael Haneke -- the current Almodovar -- the foreign director Americans love to love for the time being and will most likely discard from their awards after handing him a trophy or two -- most likely for Foreign Language Film this year.
It's difficult to see the shake up in the director category as being anything but a fluke. Bigelow's lack of nomination is a true surprise. Hooper less so simply because he directed a musical. But that it was neither them nor Affleck does not mean the town banded together for some kind of three-way snub. It means the nominating system might be something to look at.
ACTOR NOMS...
I playfully invented the term "Joaq-knocked" for whomever Phoenix would blast out of what looked like a Master free category. Shockingly enough, he took down John Hawkes' seeming Oscar lock. The Phoenix nom is just a reminder that performances stick with people. He was a front-runner from the moment PTA's film made its early release. Over the past months, Joaquin's chances seemed to have dwindled. But here he is, nominated for his third Oscar.
Looks like the horse-race is between Jackman and Lewis.
ACTRESS NOMS...
The civilized world accepts as unforgivable sin lamenting out loud for no second Oscar win... for my MARION... whale bitten MAR-I-ON.
Instead of one of the charming elder British ladies from Best Exotic Marigold Hotel it was Oscar's youngest nominee in history Quvenzhane Wallis of Beasts of the Southern Wild who bumped a french-woman.
Surprising with this category is the following...
Jennifer Lawrence has a serious shot at winning considering there are Silver Linings actors nominated in all four categories and the other three seem locked out.
Jessica Chastain's seeming slam-dunk is rolling around the rim and could tip in our out. Zero Dark took at hit in the lack of a Bigelow nom and in the "it promotes torture" smear being thrown around now.
Naomi Watts rests comfortably with her deserved nom.
And then we have two remarkable sentimental favorites who have something none of the rest of the female lead nominees besides Lawrence have: Films that are nominated for Director, Picture, and Screenplay. It's that full-ballot presence that makes a world of difference.
SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMS...
I said it myself, "Leo should win. Yet he's bumpable."
And that's precisely what happened. Yet again, the Academy has snubbed DiCaprio -- this time denying him the chance to lose by excluding him entirely.
Alan Arkin's turn for Argo is instead included.
So we have a category where ever nominee has won before. Only Phillip Seymour Hoffman hasn't won in this exact category. I'd call Tommy Lee the front runner. But PSH shouldn't be counted out.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMS...
Perfect prediction? Don't mind if I do.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY NOMS...
If you think I thought Les Miz's screenplay had a snowball's chance in hell of being nominated -- you're right, I did. Chicago was nominated. Romeo and Juliet was nominated. Hamlet (which boasted that it was deliberately using the full text - hence, where's the adaptation?) was also nominated.
As a Les Miz fan I had to include the possibility. But instead it was once again Beasts of the Southern Wild that rose to the occasion. Quite a solid appearance.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY NOMS...
So Haneke took down Looper. Not an incredible surprise in that Foreign Film loves often land a screenplay nomination. Hell, Almodovar won for Talk to Her.
The surprise with the lack of Looper is what a truly original script it was an what an opportunity it was to nominate a rising talent in writer director Rian Johnson. Instead a man who will go down as an auteur, whose work is looked at purely as "directed" snags a writing nom. An interesting turn.
I must say that this is the category -- given my career -- that interests me most. I thought this was sewn up for Wes Anderson over the summer. Then I was stunned by the majesty of Mark Boal's work and thought, "Well, Wes'll hafta wait." But that's all up in the air now with Bigelow out of the race. We're talking about a writing category where -- with the exception of Zero Dark and Flight -- the rest of the scripts were at least co-penned by their directors. This is a place Oscar loves to laud a film maker, not just a writer. Things may have shifted back to Anderson and Coppola.
ANIMATED FEATURE NOMS...
Thrilled to see Wreck-It Ralph getting all this deserved attention.
Truth be told, I had forgotten about Pirates. But Aardman can never be counted out. Interesting to note that three of the five nominees were done with stop motion animation, not digital. The fight may not be over yet!
Note...
After the Globes I shall go through film by film, category by category as we lead up to Oscar night.
After my brief little history lesson about how this whole mess stems back to a war between Spielberg and Weinstein... and how the "up to 10" nominations would certainly land us with nine pictures in the running for film of the year... it looks like we've ended up with just that...
Harvey's got to have all his money on Silver Linings.
Spielberg's got to have all his money on Lincoln.
And we've still got seven more pictures duking it out.
PICTURE NOMS...
Nailed it on...
1. The number of films
2. Seven of the nine film titles.
Though I don't like giving alternates, I always do. And of the three alternates I supplied two slunk in to fill the final two slots where I erred... Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
It seems the Academy more fondly remembers Beasts as the summer indie and Moonrise was forgotten. That's an actual surprise to me. The Master not being there is only a surprise because of how well-represented it was in other categories.
DIRECTOR NOMS...
Called it that this would be the category where if something went crazy... it would go quite awry.
Besting Entertainment Weekly, I at least had 3 of the nominees -- but that was purely because I left Affleck off my list. The truth is the lack of Affleck, Bigelow, and Hooper makes little sense. Yes, Hooper and Bigelow are the second and third most recent directors to win. But so what? The question is whether their films have been rendered powerless without both picture and director nominees.
I believe no film has ever won without its director at least being nominated. Splits happen on a routine basis. We may see that this year. But to win without a director nom -- historically impossible. Are Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Miserables hamstringed by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild?
It is nice to see the Academy remember the daring director of a smaller film in the nominating of Beasts' Behn Zeitlin. And it is always wonderful to see the Academy salute a powerful director from world cinema in Michael Haneke -- the current Almodovar -- the foreign director Americans love to love for the time being and will most likely discard from their awards after handing him a trophy or two -- most likely for Foreign Language Film this year.
It's difficult to see the shake up in the director category as being anything but a fluke. Bigelow's lack of nomination is a true surprise. Hooper less so simply because he directed a musical. But that it was neither them nor Affleck does not mean the town banded together for some kind of three-way snub. It means the nominating system might be something to look at.
ACTOR NOMS...
I playfully invented the term "Joaq-knocked" for whomever Phoenix would blast out of what looked like a Master free category. Shockingly enough, he took down John Hawkes' seeming Oscar lock. The Phoenix nom is just a reminder that performances stick with people. He was a front-runner from the moment PTA's film made its early release. Over the past months, Joaquin's chances seemed to have dwindled. But here he is, nominated for his third Oscar.
Looks like the horse-race is between Jackman and Lewis.
ACTRESS NOMS...
The civilized world accepts as unforgivable sin lamenting out loud for no second Oscar win... for my MARION... whale bitten MAR-I-ON.
Instead of one of the charming elder British ladies from Best Exotic Marigold Hotel it was Oscar's youngest nominee in history Quvenzhane Wallis of Beasts of the Southern Wild who bumped a french-woman.
Surprising with this category is the following...
Jennifer Lawrence has a serious shot at winning considering there are Silver Linings actors nominated in all four categories and the other three seem locked out.
Jessica Chastain's seeming slam-dunk is rolling around the rim and could tip in our out. Zero Dark took at hit in the lack of a Bigelow nom and in the "it promotes torture" smear being thrown around now.
Naomi Watts rests comfortably with her deserved nom.
And then we have two remarkable sentimental favorites who have something none of the rest of the female lead nominees besides Lawrence have: Films that are nominated for Director, Picture, and Screenplay. It's that full-ballot presence that makes a world of difference.
SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMS...
I said it myself, "Leo should win. Yet he's bumpable."
And that's precisely what happened. Yet again, the Academy has snubbed DiCaprio -- this time denying him the chance to lose by excluding him entirely.
Alan Arkin's turn for Argo is instead included.
So we have a category where ever nominee has won before. Only Phillip Seymour Hoffman hasn't won in this exact category. I'd call Tommy Lee the front runner. But PSH shouldn't be counted out.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMS...
Perfect prediction? Don't mind if I do.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY NOMS...
If you think I thought Les Miz's screenplay had a snowball's chance in hell of being nominated -- you're right, I did. Chicago was nominated. Romeo and Juliet was nominated. Hamlet (which boasted that it was deliberately using the full text - hence, where's the adaptation?) was also nominated.
As a Les Miz fan I had to include the possibility. But instead it was once again Beasts of the Southern Wild that rose to the occasion. Quite a solid appearance.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY NOMS...
So Haneke took down Looper. Not an incredible surprise in that Foreign Film loves often land a screenplay nomination. Hell, Almodovar won for Talk to Her.
The surprise with the lack of Looper is what a truly original script it was an what an opportunity it was to nominate a rising talent in writer director Rian Johnson. Instead a man who will go down as an auteur, whose work is looked at purely as "directed" snags a writing nom. An interesting turn.
I must say that this is the category -- given my career -- that interests me most. I thought this was sewn up for Wes Anderson over the summer. Then I was stunned by the majesty of Mark Boal's work and thought, "Well, Wes'll hafta wait." But that's all up in the air now with Bigelow out of the race. We're talking about a writing category where -- with the exception of Zero Dark and Flight -- the rest of the scripts were at least co-penned by their directors. This is a place Oscar loves to laud a film maker, not just a writer. Things may have shifted back to Anderson and Coppola.
ANIMATED FEATURE NOMS...
Thrilled to see Wreck-It Ralph getting all this deserved attention.
Truth be told, I had forgotten about Pirates. But Aardman can never be counted out. Interesting to note that three of the five nominees were done with stop motion animation, not digital. The fight may not be over yet!
Note...
After the Globes I shall go through film by film, category by category as we lead up to Oscar night.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
And the nominees might be...
First, my little essay about how annoying this has become and how Oscar should consider calling the mint and well, "casting" a pair...
In this world where the campaign for awards, the flood of screeners (which we all enjoy, come on, let's be serious), and the remarkable expense that runs free to snag a couple of Golden Boys has run wild -- Oscar has seen a solid 15 years of crisis. I personally track the over-spending whirlwind to the Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan face-off/debacle.
The DreamWorks SKG and Miramax battle that strode across the millennial line until Miramax buckled under its own weight gave us...
1998: Shakespeare in Love (Miramax)
1999: American Beauty (DreamWorks)
2000: Gladiator (DreamWorks)
2001: A Beautiful Mind -- can it yet be believed? -- (DreamWorks)
2002: Chicago (Miramax)
Until 2003 finally had the Academy shrug and admit they had to actually anoint Peter Jackson's trilogy with a full-fledged sweep and break the Stockdale style "ping pong match" between Steven and Harvey.
Since then (and partly during that time window), the month the awards are presented has shifted, the Golden Globes have risen in prominence, and disaster of all disasters, Oscar has expanded its field to 10 pictures -- now, of course, revised to "as many as ten" (which brought about last year's daring slate of 9 -- way to show 10 who's boss).
So here we sit on the eve of the 5/5:30 ish AM announcement of the 2012 nominees, snuck in a daring 90 some odd hours before the HFPA can bestow its accolades. No longer -- AMPAS seems to believe -- will a Globe win mean a guaranteed Oscar nod. "Phooey" is the only word that accurately ties all that up. At this point the Globe nominations are out, the critics circles have bestowed their honors, and the guild nominations are out -- whether or not the Oscar ballots were already returned, the guilds had a good idea how it was going to break.
Why keep moving? Why not practice a little campaign finance reform and pull the awards back into order. For example, I would like to laud Looper for having sent out a digital screener that could only be watched online in a 48 hour window. Well done.
It's certainly classier than the three (3) copies of King's Speech I received (each was great) and the screeners, bound screenplays, and coffee table-ish books that are rolling out during this year's "screenplay up in the air" frenzy. Normally we WGA-ers are bottom rung when it comes to all this campaign hoopla.
But there's no fighting it. Tomorrow they're rolling with a new scheme and we'll see what it does. My bet is that it means yet another change of tactics next year. Enough of that. Let's get on with it.
SHUT UP, McCUE. WHO WILL BE NOMINATED?!
I stand by my picks. I offer commentary about how things could swing around. But what I am listing as primary choices are what I think will turn up.
PICTURE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
(In the old, non-asterisk days, those would be the 5.)
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Master
Django Unchained
I consider those nine to be locks. I would actually be surprised if the field spreads beyond nine. If it does, it will expand to include Beasts of the Southern Wild, Skyfall, or Amour.
I'd be shocked to see a Bond Film make it. Bourne never did and -- knife in my heart that it is -- Dark Knight won't. Beasts seems loved and forgotten and Amour seems unseen. Oddly enough, it's the Haneke I could see slipping in. Should the number stick at nine, Django and The Master are most vulnerable. But I'll stick with my nine and take my licks.
DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
No, I'm not listing Ben Affleck and following straight down the DGA ticket. That may be remarkably foolish of me. But I feel that in a year where there is a masterpiece about the Middle East, the early fall release could cost Mr. Affleck his chance to be Kevin Costner. The very un-apostrophed O. Russell is the most likely to bump out should Whofleck jump in.
I stand by my five. But frankly, this is the spot where I'd like to see absolute mayhem tomorrow. This is the slippery slope category. Mr. Lee deserves his spot and Lord knows I think Hooper does -- more than he did for King's Speech even. But there's a lot of heavy hitters out there. This thing could shake the heck up with names like Haneke, Anderson, and Tarantino. That may all just be an empty pipe dream.
ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight
How I hope something for Joaquin, whom I've loved so much for so many years, I insisted on being called Joaquin during my Freshman year of college (at least it was only the fall semester). If anyone is getting Joaq-knocked, it's Denzel. People love Silver Linings -- why? I'll cover that in another entry. D-Day is the front-runner. Hawkes has become an Oscar perennial and is in a role that SCREAMS "nominate me." Bumping Jackman from the actor category would be so absurd that I would not acknowledge a winner this year should that be the case. I would refuse to recognize the recipient -- even if it's D-Day -- simply because the best were not allowed to compete. So, "No," I don't think Hugh will get Ewanized. I think he's coming to the dance.
ACTRESS
I must begin by saying this was one of the weakest years for leading female roles on record. I am stunned that there isn't one triumphant female performance that even approaches the roles offered men this year. What is this, 1994? You gonna pull some Orion movie off the shelf?
Having said that...
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Marion Cotillard, (my lady) Rust and Bone
The last two are the most vulnerable. If some Best Exotic Marigold business starts rolling through, expect to lose a French woman.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
This should be Leo's victory. Yet he's bumpable. Eddie Redmayne could get in there -- he did, after all, carry half of My Week With Marilyn without a nom, and Oscar loves a delayed payback at someone else's expense. I suppose one could consider either Goodman or Arkin from Argo. But the truth is Arkin got his win over Eddie Murphy and Goodman deserves a real win. If it wasn't going to be for Big Lebowski's Walter, it shouldn't be for a cut away with one liners. I'd also like to say keep an eye out for David Strathairn as the ever-stabbable Seward (but I doubt it) and the man who I thought turned in this year's unquestionable best supporting turn, Beasts of the Southern Wild's Dwight Henry (equally dubious).
The only true wild card I see making it in past Redmayne is Michael Caine. But something tells me all Nolan noms will be technical.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith's turn in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel -- which I have not represented here and could easily slip into the actress, picture, script, and supporting actress categories -- could knock out Weaver or Hunt. But somehow I doubt that. Weaver seems the most vulnerable, but something tells me Harvey is going to run the table with his faux-indie -- at least when it comes to nominations. You'll know the moment the trumpets blare, the hotties walk out, and they start reading. If DeNiro is in, it'd be a shocker if Weaver's out.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russel
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Les Miserables, William Nicholson
The Life of Pi, David Magee
If Best Exotic sneaks in here, it may sneak in everywhere.
The case for Perks...
The Perks of Being a Wallflower should absolutely be nominated in this category and will be the thrill nomination of the year should it crack in. Movies about youth are usually ignored by the Academy unless ... say... Robert Redford directed it. However, there have been great screenplay wins in both the original and adapted categories for serious teen films... Breaking Away and Dead Poets Society to name a pair of stellar victors (both original, however). But in a world where the expanded field granted An Education (an excellent film) a picture nomination... Perks should be in.
The case for Dark Knight Rises...
Not only should both Perks and TDKR be picture nominees... it seems this is the place the Academy likes to acknowledge the brilliance of Mr. Nolan. Since he is drawing from pre-existing characters, he is relegated to the adapted category. His work is original an magnificent. There was no novel here, no longest running show in history, no raft, no cat, no stovepipe hat. After having penned and helmed the very trilogy that forced the picture field expansion, the man should at least get a nod. (Along with his co-writers, of course.)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Looper, Rian Johnson
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
The one everyone is clamoring for as a nominee in this category -- not a victor -- is Flight. It was not for me. I don't know why. It is very well written, acted, and directed. Yet it did not hook me. If anyone's going to sneak in, I think it's Amour or Arbitrage in that "odds" order. But I'm going to go '90s and say this is the place where the Academy will acknowledge many of the directors they didn't give a nod in the helmer bout. The same logic that might bump Russell from director and land him solely with adapted -- applied in reverse.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Frankenweenie
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph (congrats!)
Paranorman
Rise of the Guardians
We'll see in the morning!
In this world where the campaign for awards, the flood of screeners (which we all enjoy, come on, let's be serious), and the remarkable expense that runs free to snag a couple of Golden Boys has run wild -- Oscar has seen a solid 15 years of crisis. I personally track the over-spending whirlwind to the Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan face-off/debacle.
The DreamWorks SKG and Miramax battle that strode across the millennial line until Miramax buckled under its own weight gave us...
1998: Shakespeare in Love (Miramax)
1999: American Beauty (DreamWorks)
2000: Gladiator (DreamWorks)
2001: A Beautiful Mind -- can it yet be believed? -- (DreamWorks)
2002: Chicago (Miramax)
Until 2003 finally had the Academy shrug and admit they had to actually anoint Peter Jackson's trilogy with a full-fledged sweep and break the Stockdale style "ping pong match" between Steven and Harvey.
Since then (and partly during that time window), the month the awards are presented has shifted, the Golden Globes have risen in prominence, and disaster of all disasters, Oscar has expanded its field to 10 pictures -- now, of course, revised to "as many as ten" (which brought about last year's daring slate of 9 -- way to show 10 who's boss).
So here we sit on the eve of the 5/5:30 ish AM announcement of the 2012 nominees, snuck in a daring 90 some odd hours before the HFPA can bestow its accolades. No longer -- AMPAS seems to believe -- will a Globe win mean a guaranteed Oscar nod. "Phooey" is the only word that accurately ties all that up. At this point the Globe nominations are out, the critics circles have bestowed their honors, and the guild nominations are out -- whether or not the Oscar ballots were already returned, the guilds had a good idea how it was going to break.
Why keep moving? Why not practice a little campaign finance reform and pull the awards back into order. For example, I would like to laud Looper for having sent out a digital screener that could only be watched online in a 48 hour window. Well done.
It's certainly classier than the three (3) copies of King's Speech I received (each was great) and the screeners, bound screenplays, and coffee table-ish books that are rolling out during this year's "screenplay up in the air" frenzy. Normally we WGA-ers are bottom rung when it comes to all this campaign hoopla.
But there's no fighting it. Tomorrow they're rolling with a new scheme and we'll see what it does. My bet is that it means yet another change of tactics next year. Enough of that. Let's get on with it.
SHUT UP, McCUE. WHO WILL BE NOMINATED?!
I stand by my picks. I offer commentary about how things could swing around. But what I am listing as primary choices are what I think will turn up.
PICTURE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
(In the old, non-asterisk days, those would be the 5.)
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Master
Django Unchained
I consider those nine to be locks. I would actually be surprised if the field spreads beyond nine. If it does, it will expand to include Beasts of the Southern Wild, Skyfall, or Amour.
I'd be shocked to see a Bond Film make it. Bourne never did and -- knife in my heart that it is -- Dark Knight won't. Beasts seems loved and forgotten and Amour seems unseen. Oddly enough, it's the Haneke I could see slipping in. Should the number stick at nine, Django and The Master are most vulnerable. But I'll stick with my nine and take my licks.
DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
No, I'm not listing Ben Affleck and following straight down the DGA ticket. That may be remarkably foolish of me. But I feel that in a year where there is a masterpiece about the Middle East, the early fall release could cost Mr. Affleck his chance to be Kevin Costner. The very un-apostrophed O. Russell is the most likely to bump out should Whofleck jump in.
I stand by my five. But frankly, this is the spot where I'd like to see absolute mayhem tomorrow. This is the slippery slope category. Mr. Lee deserves his spot and Lord knows I think Hooper does -- more than he did for King's Speech even. But there's a lot of heavy hitters out there. This thing could shake the heck up with names like Haneke, Anderson, and Tarantino. That may all just be an empty pipe dream.
ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight
How I hope something for Joaquin, whom I've loved so much for so many years, I insisted on being called Joaquin during my Freshman year of college (at least it was only the fall semester). If anyone is getting Joaq-knocked, it's Denzel. People love Silver Linings -- why? I'll cover that in another entry. D-Day is the front-runner. Hawkes has become an Oscar perennial and is in a role that SCREAMS "nominate me." Bumping Jackman from the actor category would be so absurd that I would not acknowledge a winner this year should that be the case. I would refuse to recognize the recipient -- even if it's D-Day -- simply because the best were not allowed to compete. So, "No," I don't think Hugh will get Ewanized. I think he's coming to the dance.
ACTRESS
I must begin by saying this was one of the weakest years for leading female roles on record. I am stunned that there isn't one triumphant female performance that even approaches the roles offered men this year. What is this, 1994? You gonna pull some Orion movie off the shelf?
Having said that...
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Marion Cotillard, (my lady) Rust and Bone
The last two are the most vulnerable. If some Best Exotic Marigold business starts rolling through, expect to lose a French woman.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
This should be Leo's victory. Yet he's bumpable. Eddie Redmayne could get in there -- he did, after all, carry half of My Week With Marilyn without a nom, and Oscar loves a delayed payback at someone else's expense. I suppose one could consider either Goodman or Arkin from Argo. But the truth is Arkin got his win over Eddie Murphy and Goodman deserves a real win. If it wasn't going to be for Big Lebowski's Walter, it shouldn't be for a cut away with one liners. I'd also like to say keep an eye out for David Strathairn as the ever-stabbable Seward (but I doubt it) and the man who I thought turned in this year's unquestionable best supporting turn, Beasts of the Southern Wild's Dwight Henry (equally dubious).
The only true wild card I see making it in past Redmayne is Michael Caine. But something tells me all Nolan noms will be technical.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith's turn in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel -- which I have not represented here and could easily slip into the actress, picture, script, and supporting actress categories -- could knock out Weaver or Hunt. But somehow I doubt that. Weaver seems the most vulnerable, but something tells me Harvey is going to run the table with his faux-indie -- at least when it comes to nominations. You'll know the moment the trumpets blare, the hotties walk out, and they start reading. If DeNiro is in, it'd be a shocker if Weaver's out.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russel
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Les Miserables, William Nicholson
The Life of Pi, David Magee
If Best Exotic sneaks in here, it may sneak in everywhere.
The case for Perks...
The Perks of Being a Wallflower should absolutely be nominated in this category and will be the thrill nomination of the year should it crack in. Movies about youth are usually ignored by the Academy unless ... say... Robert Redford directed it. However, there have been great screenplay wins in both the original and adapted categories for serious teen films... Breaking Away and Dead Poets Society to name a pair of stellar victors (both original, however). But in a world where the expanded field granted An Education (an excellent film) a picture nomination... Perks should be in.
The case for Dark Knight Rises...
Not only should both Perks and TDKR be picture nominees... it seems this is the place the Academy likes to acknowledge the brilliance of Mr. Nolan. Since he is drawing from pre-existing characters, he is relegated to the adapted category. His work is original an magnificent. There was no novel here, no longest running show in history, no raft, no cat, no stovepipe hat. After having penned and helmed the very trilogy that forced the picture field expansion, the man should at least get a nod. (Along with his co-writers, of course.)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Looper, Rian Johnson
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
The one everyone is clamoring for as a nominee in this category -- not a victor -- is Flight. It was not for me. I don't know why. It is very well written, acted, and directed. Yet it did not hook me. If anyone's going to sneak in, I think it's Amour or Arbitrage in that "odds" order. But I'm going to go '90s and say this is the place where the Academy will acknowledge many of the directors they didn't give a nod in the helmer bout. The same logic that might bump Russell from director and land him solely with adapted -- applied in reverse.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Frankenweenie
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph (congrats!)
Paranorman
Rise of the Guardians
We'll see in the morning!
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