All in all, I would say that I did pretty damn well.
After my brief little history lesson about how this whole mess stems back to a war between Spielberg and Weinstein... and how the "up to 10" nominations would certainly land us with nine pictures in the running for film of the year... it looks like we've ended up with just that...
Harvey's got to have all his money on Silver Linings.
Spielberg's got to have all his money on Lincoln.
And we've still got seven more pictures duking it out.
PICTURE NOMS...
Nailed it on...
1. The number of films
2. Seven of the nine film titles.
Though I don't like giving alternates, I always do. And of the three alternates I supplied two slunk in to fill the final two slots where I erred... Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
It seems the Academy more fondly remembers Beasts as the summer indie and Moonrise was forgotten. That's an actual surprise to me. The Master not being there is only a surprise because of how well-represented it was in other categories.
DIRECTOR NOMS...
Called it that this would be the category where if something went crazy... it would go quite awry.
Besting Entertainment Weekly, I at least had 3 of the nominees -- but that was purely because I left Affleck off my list. The truth is the lack of Affleck, Bigelow, and Hooper makes little sense. Yes, Hooper and Bigelow are the second and third most recent directors to win. But so what? The question is whether their films have been rendered powerless without both picture and director nominees.
I believe no film has ever won without its director at least being nominated. Splits happen on a routine basis. We may see that this year. But to win without a director nom -- historically impossible. Are Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, and Les Miserables hamstringed by Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild?
It is nice to see the Academy remember the daring director of a smaller film in the nominating of Beasts' Behn Zeitlin. And it is always wonderful to see the Academy salute a powerful director from world cinema in Michael Haneke -- the current Almodovar -- the foreign director Americans love to love for the time being and will most likely discard from their awards after handing him a trophy or two -- most likely for Foreign Language Film this year.
It's difficult to see the shake up in the director category as being anything but a fluke. Bigelow's lack of nomination is a true surprise. Hooper less so simply because he directed a musical. But that it was neither them nor Affleck does not mean the town banded together for some kind of three-way snub. It means the nominating system might be something to look at.
ACTOR NOMS...
I playfully invented the term "Joaq-knocked" for whomever Phoenix would blast out of what looked like a Master free category. Shockingly enough, he took down John Hawkes' seeming Oscar lock. The Phoenix nom is just a reminder that performances stick with people. He was a front-runner from the moment PTA's film made its early release. Over the past months, Joaquin's chances seemed to have dwindled. But here he is, nominated for his third Oscar.
Looks like the horse-race is between Jackman and Lewis.
ACTRESS NOMS...
The civilized world accepts as unforgivable sin lamenting out loud for no second Oscar win... for my MARION... whale bitten MAR-I-ON.
Instead of one of the charming elder British ladies from Best Exotic Marigold Hotel it was Oscar's youngest nominee in history Quvenzhane Wallis of Beasts of the Southern Wild who bumped a french-woman.
Surprising with this category is the following...
Jennifer Lawrence has a serious shot at winning considering there are Silver Linings actors nominated in all four categories and the other three seem locked out.
Jessica Chastain's seeming slam-dunk is rolling around the rim and could tip in our out. Zero Dark took at hit in the lack of a Bigelow nom and in the "it promotes torture" smear being thrown around now.
Naomi Watts rests comfortably with her deserved nom.
And then we have two remarkable sentimental favorites who have something none of the rest of the female lead nominees besides Lawrence have: Films that are nominated for Director, Picture, and Screenplay. It's that full-ballot presence that makes a world of difference.
SUPPORTING ACTOR NOMS...
I said it myself, "Leo should win. Yet he's bumpable."
And that's precisely what happened. Yet again, the Academy has snubbed DiCaprio -- this time denying him the chance to lose by excluding him entirely.
Alan Arkin's turn for Argo is instead included.
So we have a category where ever nominee has won before. Only Phillip Seymour Hoffman hasn't won in this exact category. I'd call Tommy Lee the front runner. But PSH shouldn't be counted out.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS NOMS...
Perfect prediction? Don't mind if I do.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY NOMS...
If you think I thought Les Miz's screenplay had a snowball's chance in hell of being nominated -- you're right, I did. Chicago was nominated. Romeo and Juliet was nominated. Hamlet (which boasted that it was deliberately using the full text - hence, where's the adaptation?) was also nominated.
As a Les Miz fan I had to include the possibility. But instead it was once again Beasts of the Southern Wild that rose to the occasion. Quite a solid appearance.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY NOMS...
So Haneke took down Looper. Not an incredible surprise in that Foreign Film loves often land a screenplay nomination. Hell, Almodovar won for Talk to Her.
The surprise with the lack of Looper is what a truly original script it was an what an opportunity it was to nominate a rising talent in writer director Rian Johnson. Instead a man who will go down as an auteur, whose work is looked at purely as "directed" snags a writing nom. An interesting turn.
I must say that this is the category -- given my career -- that interests me most. I thought this was sewn up for Wes Anderson over the summer. Then I was stunned by the majesty of Mark Boal's work and thought, "Well, Wes'll hafta wait." But that's all up in the air now with Bigelow out of the race. We're talking about a writing category where -- with the exception of Zero Dark and Flight -- the rest of the scripts were at least co-penned by their directors. This is a place Oscar loves to laud a film maker, not just a writer. Things may have shifted back to Anderson and Coppola.
ANIMATED FEATURE NOMS...
Thrilled to see Wreck-It Ralph getting all this deserved attention.
Truth be told, I had forgotten about Pirates. But Aardman can never be counted out. Interesting to note that three of the five nominees were done with stop motion animation, not digital. The fight may not be over yet!
Note...
After the Globes I shall go through film by film, category by category as we lead up to Oscar night.
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