After the tumult from this week's Oscar nominations, where a couple of curve balls in Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild and a couple of eye-poppers when Bigelow, Affleck, and Hooper went un-nominated, tonight's Hollywood Foreign Press Awards take on a weight they've never had.
Gone are the days of the Globes airing, a few week gap, and then the Oscar nominations.
Gone are the days when the Globes were presented Sunday and the Oscar noms the following Tuesday.
We've crossed through the looking glass, and in what AMPAS hopes will steady the ship of their own awards, tonight we will watch a room full of Oscar nominated and non-nominated duke it out for what may be the only trophy they'll see -- or what will be the perfect signal to the world that they've got momentum and are an Oscar force to be reckoned with.
Though the Academy thought eclipsing the telecast with their nominations would somehow lessen the influence between Globe and Golden Boy, it seems that may have blown up in their faces...
Or...
Tonight we could watch a telecast where...
Jackman and Lawrence take the comedy trophies
Day-Lewis and Chastain take the drama trophies.
Leo takes supporting -- and is Oscar Nom-less.
Anne Hathaway takes supporting (as she will throughout everything, sorry Amy Adams).
And anyone but Spielberg wins director... especially if it's Bigelow or Affleck (the more likely of the two).
Should that go down you will have the two front runners in the lead categories with a Globe a piece. You'll have the Academy's "we all already have Oscars" supporting acting category remaining an utter guessing game. And you'll have the Oscars for director and picture still flying in the air.
Do I think this will happen? When it comes to the acting categories, I do. I also think Affleck will more than likely with director. Leo... seems like a lad I'm always pulling for but who doesn't get awards. But the Globes have liked Leo in the past. He's their kinda guy.
PREDICTIONS!
BEST PICTURE DRAMA
This category seems down to Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty when one looks out toward Oscar-land. And yet, there is a part of my guy that can't even believe how HFPA it would be to hand the trophy to Argo and Bugsy-up the joint (you're welcome, 1991).
Three questions...
Is it a Lincoln sweep?
Does the world want to laud or ignore the bin Laden movie?
Is the HFPA such a bunch of star f-ers that they're going Argo?
I'm going to say forget Zero Dark and will put my money on Lincoln. But if Argo wins, there will be no surprise. We'll just know we're either going to make Oscar history or the Globes have taught us nothing when it comes to the picture race.
BEST PICTURE COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Les Miserables.
Should the Globe go to Silver Linings Playbook, we may be looking at an Oscar race of Crash proportions. Of all the things the Globes are doing tonight, the most they should be doing to legitimize what will be Harvey's play for a Silver Lining victory at the Oscars, is to give Jennifer Lawrence actress.
This picture category is such a Globe lock it's stunning. A Miz miss would be a shocker.
BEST DIRECTOR
I would be stunned if the Hollywood Foreign Press didn't give Ben Affleck a chance to slap on his cockeyed smile and maybe even get a little tearful before talking about the hard work done by the CIA and who the real heroes are.
Then everyone can stand up and clap. Ben can make an off color joke. We can all wonder if he'll run for office some day -- rather than whether he actually should.
If Spielberg wins here, it means he's walking all the way to the bank.
The one exciting thing is that director is often a category where the Globes split with Oscar. It is certainly a category where they split with their own pictures -- leaving three sets of film makers as victors.
I expect that split in the form of Daredevil tonight.
BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty.
Were Emmanuelle Riva nominated here, I would wonder about Chastain's odds. But Jessica's relatively free and clear. In fact, her strongest competition is Naomi Watts in a film with quite European roots that shows an international disaster. And she did a hell of a lot more than linger in the corner, certain of her convictions -- um, how about when they dragged her, still wounded, through the debris... do you remember that?
But this is 90% Chastain with a less than 10% chance of Wattsage. The fact that Ewan wasn't nominated for The Impossible definitely lowers Watts' shot.
BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln.
We could all start getting cocky about how he's won too much and so forget it - it could be, I don't know Richard Gere in Arbitrage! No. It's going to be Daniel Day-Lewis for his mind-blowing performance as Abraham Lincoln. It's going to happen.
The only one with a shot at toppling him is Joaquin, a boy who the Globes have shown love when Oscar failed to.
BEST ACTRESS - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook.
No doubt Katniss snags the trophy for this O. Russell hoot.
There's always a chance for Maggie Smith or Judi Dench at such a thing. But the HFPA loves a beautiful lady. Consider Lawrence a lock.
BEST ACTOR - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Sound the trumpets, it's Hugh Jackman in what may be the only major film acting award he receives. Period.
An amazing speech here -- which I'm certain he'll give -- could sway Oscar hearts. I think Hugh's charm level tonight will show his chances against D-Day. Then again, that assumption never worked for that other Hugh... Grant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonard DiCaprio, Django Unchained.
Tommy Lee Jones will win this Oscar. So it would be no surprise if he started that march here. But I think HFPA goes Leo. It gives him a chance to thank Quentin - an HFPA favorite. And it gives them a chance to show that they're the cooler hipper awards.
Truly this awards is Hoffman's. I doubt he will see many victories this year and that's a shame. He is, after all, The Master. Opting to slide into the supporting category was wise as the award season wouldn't tolerate both Joaquin and Hoffman in the same race for the Anderson film. But the man was astounding.
Also interesting to note, while in this category, that the shift from this race to Oscar is DeNiro bumping Leo, not Arkin. Thus I suppose I should look back on my Oscar predictions and say I suppose what I thought was happening was DeNiro knocking out Arkin; my fear, of course, being that Leo would be collateral damage. In the end, he was. As he is in nearly every one of his films.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This award is absolutely Anne Hathaway's. Period.
Amy Adams could take a stab at it. Or Sally Field. But this one goes to the lovely Anne as the factory worker gone French whore ... who suffered so very deeply... her hair didn't grow back in heaven.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
It's between Amour and Intouchables. I would say Amour takes it. But given the nature of the Hollywood Foreign Press... this is a category where the rules and winners are often starkly different from Oscar. Take a look at the fact that there are two nominees from France. HFPA doesn't opt for that "only one official submission per nation" biz. Consequently, the race is quite different.
But it seems Haneke's win, nonetheless.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Ah yes, the combined screenplay category where adapted and original fare in the same bout.
This is between Mark Boal, Tony Kushner, and Chris Terrio.
A Terrio win could mean an Argo all around or it could mean "this is the award your film will be receiving - please enjoy the remained of the telecast."
Kushner probably has the adapted screenplay Oscar in the bag. Topping all the other films here would seem to solidify that win.
And then there's the masterful work of Mark Boal. Though it may seem similar to his work on Hurt Locker, this screenplay is far superior -- the work of a master.
I'm knocking Boal out of the race and saying it's between Terrio and Kushner.
I'm picking Terrio.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
I have great hopes for Wreck-It Ralph, but I believe this one goes to Frankenweenie.
Remember that the awards for Foreign Film and Animated Feature go to the directors, not the producers as is the case in the Best Picture categories. Thus, this proves yet another place to award a film maker.
Last year they handed one to Spielberg for Tin Tin. Expect Tim Burton to grace the stage tonight.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Music is a place where the Globes and Oscars split because they have entirely different qualifying rules.
However, I would expect this to go to Alexandre Desplat. He's got a shot at the Oscar, too. Nearly has it locked down.
Then again, I'm not going to be upset to hear John Williams give a speech. I just highly doubt it.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Well, well... if it isn't a year where there actually are a couple of pretty good songs.
The winner will be Adele's "Skyfall."
HFPA likes awarding stars, even when their music is lousy -- sorry Madonna, it's true. This year they've got a rock star doing a Bond song... and it's actually the best movie song of the year.
Bond songs are historically Oscar losers. None of them has ever one. This could swing that ship.
I obviously have a great love of television and would like to go through all those awards, too. But that's not what this blog is about. So let me just say...
Danes. Lange. Looking for Louis-Dreyfus to top Dunham... but am worried. Greenfield would be a shock to watch pull it off. Otherwise... we'll see how it goes.
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