First, my little essay about how annoying this has become and how Oscar should consider calling the mint and well, "casting" a pair...
In this world where the campaign for awards, the flood of screeners (which we all enjoy, come on, let's be serious), and the remarkable expense that runs free to snag a couple of Golden Boys has run wild -- Oscar has seen a solid 15 years of crisis. I personally track the over-spending whirlwind to the Shakespeare in Love/Saving Private Ryan face-off/debacle.
The DreamWorks SKG and Miramax battle that strode across the millennial line until Miramax buckled under its own weight gave us...
1998: Shakespeare in Love (Miramax)
1999: American Beauty (DreamWorks)
2000: Gladiator (DreamWorks)
2001: A Beautiful Mind -- can it yet be believed? -- (DreamWorks)
2002: Chicago (Miramax)
Until 2003 finally had the Academy shrug and admit they had to actually anoint Peter Jackson's trilogy with a full-fledged sweep and break the Stockdale style "ping pong match" between Steven and Harvey.
Since then (and partly during that time window), the month the awards are presented has shifted, the Golden Globes have risen in prominence, and disaster of all disasters, Oscar has expanded its field to 10 pictures -- now, of course, revised to "as many as ten" (which brought about last year's daring slate of 9 -- way to show 10 who's boss).
So here we sit on the eve of the 5/5:30 ish AM announcement of the 2012 nominees, snuck in a daring 90 some odd hours before the HFPA can bestow its accolades. No longer -- AMPAS seems to believe -- will a Globe win mean a guaranteed Oscar nod. "Phooey" is the only word that accurately ties all that up. At this point the Globe nominations are out, the critics circles have bestowed their honors, and the guild nominations are out -- whether or not the Oscar ballots were already returned, the guilds had a good idea how it was going to break.
Why keep moving? Why not practice a little campaign finance reform and pull the awards back into order. For example, I would like to laud Looper for having sent out a digital screener that could only be watched online in a 48 hour window. Well done.
It's certainly classier than the three (3) copies of King's Speech I received (each was great) and the screeners, bound screenplays, and coffee table-ish books that are rolling out during this year's "screenplay up in the air" frenzy. Normally we WGA-ers are bottom rung when it comes to all this campaign hoopla.
But there's no fighting it. Tomorrow they're rolling with a new scheme and we'll see what it does. My bet is that it means yet another change of tactics next year. Enough of that. Let's get on with it.
SHUT UP, McCUE. WHO WILL BE NOMINATED?!
I stand by my picks. I offer commentary about how things could swing around. But what I am listing as primary choices are what I think will turn up.
PICTURE
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
(In the old, non-asterisk days, those would be the 5.)
Moonrise Kingdom
Argo
The Master
Django Unchained
I consider those nine to be locks. I would actually be surprised if the field spreads beyond nine. If it does, it will expand to include Beasts of the Southern Wild, Skyfall, or Amour.
I'd be shocked to see a Bond Film make it. Bourne never did and -- knife in my heart that it is -- Dark Knight won't. Beasts seems loved and forgotten and Amour seems unseen. Oddly enough, it's the Haneke I could see slipping in. Should the number stick at nine, Django and The Master are most vulnerable. But I'll stick with my nine and take my licks.
DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
No, I'm not listing Ben Affleck and following straight down the DGA ticket. That may be remarkably foolish of me. But I feel that in a year where there is a masterpiece about the Middle East, the early fall release could cost Mr. Affleck his chance to be Kevin Costner. The very un-apostrophed O. Russell is the most likely to bump out should Whofleck jump in.
I stand by my five. But frankly, this is the spot where I'd like to see absolute mayhem tomorrow. This is the slippery slope category. Mr. Lee deserves his spot and Lord knows I think Hooper does -- more than he did for King's Speech even. But there's a lot of heavy hitters out there. This thing could shake the heck up with names like Haneke, Anderson, and Tarantino. That may all just be an empty pipe dream.
ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight
How I hope something for Joaquin, whom I've loved so much for so many years, I insisted on being called Joaquin during my Freshman year of college (at least it was only the fall semester). If anyone is getting Joaq-knocked, it's Denzel. People love Silver Linings -- why? I'll cover that in another entry. D-Day is the front-runner. Hawkes has become an Oscar perennial and is in a role that SCREAMS "nominate me." Bumping Jackman from the actor category would be so absurd that I would not acknowledge a winner this year should that be the case. I would refuse to recognize the recipient -- even if it's D-Day -- simply because the best were not allowed to compete. So, "No," I don't think Hugh will get Ewanized. I think he's coming to the dance.
ACTRESS
I must begin by saying this was one of the weakest years for leading female roles on record. I am stunned that there isn't one triumphant female performance that even approaches the roles offered men this year. What is this, 1994? You gonna pull some Orion movie off the shelf?
Having said that...
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Marion Cotillard, (my lady) Rust and Bone
The last two are the most vulnerable. If some Best Exotic Marigold business starts rolling through, expect to lose a French woman.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
This should be Leo's victory. Yet he's bumpable. Eddie Redmayne could get in there -- he did, after all, carry half of My Week With Marilyn without a nom, and Oscar loves a delayed payback at someone else's expense. I suppose one could consider either Goodman or Arkin from Argo. But the truth is Arkin got his win over Eddie Murphy and Goodman deserves a real win. If it wasn't going to be for Big Lebowski's Walter, it shouldn't be for a cut away with one liners. I'd also like to say keep an eye out for David Strathairn as the ever-stabbable Seward (but I doubt it) and the man who I thought turned in this year's unquestionable best supporting turn, Beasts of the Southern Wild's Dwight Henry (equally dubious).
The only true wild card I see making it in past Redmayne is Michael Caine. But something tells me all Nolan noms will be technical.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Amy Adams, The Master
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith's turn in Best Exotic Marigold Hotel -- which I have not represented here and could easily slip into the actress, picture, script, and supporting actress categories -- could knock out Weaver or Hunt. But somehow I doubt that. Weaver seems the most vulnerable, but something tells me Harvey is going to run the table with his faux-indie -- at least when it comes to nominations. You'll know the moment the trumpets blare, the hotties walk out, and they start reading. If DeNiro is in, it'd be a shocker if Weaver's out.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russel
Argo, Chris Terrio
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Les Miserables, William Nicholson
The Life of Pi, David Magee
If Best Exotic sneaks in here, it may sneak in everywhere.
The case for Perks...
The Perks of Being a Wallflower should absolutely be nominated in this category and will be the thrill nomination of the year should it crack in. Movies about youth are usually ignored by the Academy unless ... say... Robert Redford directed it. However, there have been great screenplay wins in both the original and adapted categories for serious teen films... Breaking Away and Dead Poets Society to name a pair of stellar victors (both original, however). But in a world where the expanded field granted An Education (an excellent film) a picture nomination... Perks should be in.
The case for Dark Knight Rises...
Not only should both Perks and TDKR be picture nominees... it seems this is the place the Academy likes to acknowledge the brilliance of Mr. Nolan. Since he is drawing from pre-existing characters, he is relegated to the adapted category. His work is original an magnificent. There was no novel here, no longest running show in history, no raft, no cat, no stovepipe hat. After having penned and helmed the very trilogy that forced the picture field expansion, the man should at least get a nod. (Along with his co-writers, of course.)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Looper, Rian Johnson
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
The one everyone is clamoring for as a nominee in this category -- not a victor -- is Flight. It was not for me. I don't know why. It is very well written, acted, and directed. Yet it did not hook me. If anyone's going to sneak in, I think it's Amour or Arbitrage in that "odds" order. But I'm going to go '90s and say this is the place where the Academy will acknowledge many of the directors they didn't give a nod in the helmer bout. The same logic that might bump Russell from director and land him solely with adapted -- applied in reverse.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Frankenweenie
Brave
Wreck-It Ralph (congrats!)
Paranorman
Rise of the Guardians
We'll see in the morning!
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