Well, it was just in a little blog entry like this, one earlier than my remarkably brief tribute to the ever-lovely Jodie Foster that the prediction was made...
If you have Daniel Day-Lewis and Hugh Jackman win...
If you have Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence win...
Then you have no advancement on who leads in the Oscar game. I'll concede D-Day has the edge. But let's not jump to any conclusions just yet.
Leo lost... not surprised... I keep pulling for him... not surprised. Remember to only play cards against me, never with me. I lose. But the Waltz win was a surprise. Though he was the best actor in the film -- you act as if that actually matters when it comes to these things -- Waltz played the same exact part in Inglorious Basterds. He did it masterfully in both, but if you are going to actually talk to me about the fact that these two men had different moral backgrounds and were consequently different characters -- then you've lost your mind. They were played precisely the same. Hey, if it ain't broke...
But Waltzing to the podium come Oscar time doesn't seem like it will be so easy. I think it will go to Tommy Lee Jones -- probably because he looked so chipper last night. Have you ever seen a happier chap? I mean, shit, if you can't take a Hope Springs joke, I don't know where you hid the summer Batman and Robin was released (let along the Eckhart reminder).
Anne, of course, won.
Quentin's screenplay win was a surprise and will most definitely remain at the Globes. I will be stunned if Quentin beats out Mark Boal, Wes Anderson and Michael Haneke (though his is probably the Foreign Language Film Oscar). The truth is Q hasn't won in a long time and has continued to deliver hit films for 18 years since his Pulp Fiction victories. Could be he's due. Last year went to a man who was... the Wood man himself... much deserved for Midnight in Paris. That victory seems far more clean cut to me and as if it were up against less stiff competition. Here's the chance to give Zero Dark or Moonrise something. But maybe Chastain's that chance and here's the category to give Django something. I'm just saying, don't let last night go to your head, Quentin. Though I doubt you let much go to your head. Right?
Score, as always, a curve-ball. Danna's work is great. And I'll speak in depth about the overall beauty of Ang Lee's Life of Pi when I cover the pictures individually.
Song. Adele. Duh. And what a great speech.
Amour. Not a surprise.
And then it comes to the very McCue predicted Argo sweep. Affleck holds and Argo blocks to create predictability issues. Why yes... there have been a great many years where the drama winner at the Globes has not aligned with the Oscar.
Bugsy went on to be Silence of the Lambs
Scent of a Woman went on to be Unforgiven
Sense and Sensibility went on to be Braveheart
We stuck true for a while. But the mid-aughts brought another set of splits.
The Aviator becoming Million Dollar Baby
Brokeback turning into the not even Globe nominated Crash
Babel being the film to top the Oscar winning Departed
Atonement going No Country
Avatar, The Social Network... hell, the recent victories have only stuck for Slumdog and The Artist -- which was a "comedy." Bringing me back to ...
Les Miserables took comedy last night. Might not seem like a big thing to everyone, but it sure as hell seemed like a big thing when The Artist and Chicago took comedy. I'm pulling for it. But I might have a better chance hauling in the ship at the film's opener than this thing does of winning. I'm just point out the Les Miz-ness of it all ...
Because otherwise you've got a situation on your hands where you've got to completely chuck not only the picture winner, but the director winner. They did it to Fincher. They did it to Cameron. That's two out of three in the expanded field years. However, the enormous striking difference is that at least Fincher and Cameron went on to be Oscar nominees.
Hold that phrase, dear -- "went on to be."
Last night we rolled through a Globes ceremony where we knew Affleck "sure as hell wasn't" nominated for director. That die was cast.
Side note: I've often thought the phrase should be interchangeably "The die is cast" or "The dye is cast." Either way you're screwed and its irreversibly up to the fates.
A film without its director nominated does not win the Academy Award. The failure to lock a directing nomination is about the only thing more fatal than not locking a writing or an editing nomination. These are the keys to the picture win. Directing being the key-est of keys.
A lack of directing has been a death sentence. In recent years to...
Moulin Rouge, Atonement, Little Miss Sunshine...
... and countless more if you want to look back.
Or at least they have been the "keys" and a lack of directing has been the "death sentence."
But now we're in the era of 10 (i.e. "9") nominees. So we have to look at how things have gone since.
Bigelow's Hurt Locker triumph was one thing. But Bigelow's film was at least both nominated in all categories at both ceremonies.
When The King's Speech dipped its sails and went for gold, it was Cap'n Harvey at the wheel. It was nominated at both ceremonies, too. However it turned one performance win into a veritable Oscar sweep. One wonders if that is remotely possible with Silver Linings Playbook. Is it, world? Really?
Could it actually be possible that Argo somehow pulls this thing off because of the Affleck sympathy vote? Who doesn't want a telecast that ends with both Clooney and Affleck holding trophies for a movie we all enjoyed? It's Oscar history.
For a film to win the Oscar without having a directing nomination means that the Academy is willfully acknowledging the failure of their own voting system and how that results in picture, director, etc. nominees. It could be the Academy, while feeling bad for Ben and Bigelow -- after all, everywhere they go, people know they're not nom-inated, but they're Ben and Bigelow: Oscar lives without 'em -- don't particularly care. Yes, that sentence without the lyrics is that the Academy may just not care about Ben and Bigelow. I could see it with KB and with Tom Hooper -- you just won director -- like just before the French silent guy... so could you?... please?
But Ben's a whole other kinda thing. People sure ate it with a spoon when the Academy trophied Affleck up the first time.
So why not enjoy yourself and put Argo back in the race -- hell, you could even think Zero Dark has been given hope by the Globe wins for the other Middle-East film.
Either that or you're looking at Bradley Cooper in a Hefty Bag going up against Steven Spielberg's Tony Kushner's Dorris Kearns Goodwin's Lincoln (which I deeply enjoyed). To me, last night says don't count your chickens. Don't count out or on anything. There are a few locks... but why say their names in this piece and jinx anyone?
Affleck's out. But perhaps Argo isn't. And that directing race is widening by the day. Unless I'm crazy and Lincoln's got it all logged up.
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