Sneaky, sneaky...
Each year there are one or two surprise nominees who slip into major categories simply due to campaigning, screeners, or a collection of buzz. Oftentimes, these are films, performances, or technical achievements that have been lauded among critics circles but weren't able to break into the HFPA Globe noms despite their having a range of 10 to 12 of everything -- unless of course we're talking writer or director.
So who will that be this year?
Firstly, I am intrigued to see how the final push for Extremely Loud Incredibly Close plays out. In past years, the solid Daldry pics were already a part of the Awards dance. Whether it was Billy Elliot -- Daldry's most famous project that traded a Globe nomination for picture in to receive both a director nod for Daldry and a writing nod for Lee Hall. Or The Hours -- best picture and actress winner at the Globes -- that went on to snag actress out from under Zellweger despite the "all the aboard the Chicago train" vibe of 2002. And then there's The Reader which brought Kate one of her two Globes that evening -- albeit in the supporting category. One wonders how Kate came to the decision to push for a Reader nom in the lead category -- which certainly carried the picture along with it -- when she could have thrown her weight behind her Revolutionary Road victory and perhaps carried that company with the same momentum landing then-husband Sam Mendes a nom. Someone with knowledge of how this went down should please fill me in.
This year, however, Extremely Loud was Globe nom-less and is scrambling against misguided reviews and a last minute release to snag a few Oscar noms. They can roll clips where People Magazine lauds it as the finest film of the year as much as they like -- save Midnight in Paris, there are days I agree with them -- Loud needs Oscar nominations if it plans on having any theatrical life at all. Personally, I think they may well pull it off. If the noms stretch to 7 or 8, Loud may be in. Daldry seems out -- but Eric Roth may duck his head into the already competitive adapted category and there is a chance Sandra Bullock may snag a supporting nomination -- though I wonder who she'd bump considering McCarthy, Spencer, Chastain, and Bejo are locks and bumping Woodley seems impossible in a year with this much heat (can you believe it?) on The Descendants. I see this as an "all in" proposition. Either Extremely Loud makes it with at least 3 or 4 nominations or we see a mirror of the Globes -- a total lock out.
And then there's Drive. While it goes without saying that Albert Brooks will receive a supporting actor nom and also stands the best chance -- but seriously, lots of luck unless you pull a Binoche -- against Christopher Plummer, the films other chances are up in the air. It's my opinion that Gosling, as he has in the past, will grab what I call the "Sean Penn nom" the I am Sam/Sweet and Lowdown "you don't have a chance in hell, but that was one heck of a performance" nomination. He's done it before with each of his previous nominations and after a year where he also starred in Ides of March and the highly underrated Crazy Stupid Love, a Gosling omission would be a shocker. Considering duJadin, Clooney, Pitt, are absolute locks one wonders who gets bumped. Leo is, after all, Leo, but has anyone heard another person talk about how great J. Edgar or Leo's performance is? At least Fassbender's hard to like Shame sports a great performance though the film as a whole is difficult to embrace -- I enjoyed it, but I certainly can see why many wouldn't.
Warrior is a remarkably "under the radar" pic this year. Personally, the drama between Warrior's Conlon brothers is far more intriguing than any aspect of The Fighter's Ward bros. There is a production level question to Gavin O'Connor's film that gives it more of a "made for cable" feel than David O. Russel's stylized and very nominated Fighter -- but the performances leave no question. Tom Hardy's shot at a nomination starts with this role -- which will go without one. But after Rock N' Rolla, Dark Knight, Inception, The Take (TV -- but something you all need to Netflix stream STAT), Tinker Tailor, and the upcoming Knight Rises, Hardy has established himself as a player. Warrior makes him a lead. Once we pass This Means War, where Hardy's acting accolade arrives will be the next question. This year, it seems the only shot Warrior has is a repeat of the SAG nom for Mr. Nick Nolte. Nolte's nominated films come in spurts. Sometimes he's included -- Affliction, Prince of Tides -- sometimes he's not -- Cape Fear, Lorezo's Oil. It could well be that Nolte has since launched himself into a shaky realm where each performance seems a comeback and this time around he gets the lone nom for a fine film.
Martha Marcy May Marlene may be relegated to the Independent Spirit world. But is it possible the world hasn't forgotten Elizabeth Olsen's star turn and she Whale Riders herself right into the top five ladies? Woodley may well be this year's Hailee Steinfeld, meaning the Academy might think it's already satisfied patting an ingenue on the back -- especially when the still quite young Michelle Williams has a genuine shot at taking it all. But the early buzz on Olsen was so extreme it's possible it hasn't worn off. In a category that will include Williams, Streep, Davis, Close -- it may be too much for Olsen to overcome Tilda or Rooney. In fact, those last two ladies may well both show up and knock out Glenn.
The directing category is one to keep in mind until Monday night when I'll do my final predictions for Tuesday morning's announcement. Scorsese - in. Allen - in. Hazanavicius - in. Payne - in. Then there's a battle between Spielberg, Fincher, Daldry, and quite possibly Bennett Miller (who deserves more recognition than he's getting, but let's be frank -- not going to happen). Could be two of these wild cards jump in and my dear sweet Wood man gets knocked. Though The Artists has so much tied up and a great deal of DreamWorks effort behind The Help -- this doesn't mean a director push for Tate Taylor. Daldry is balls to the wall with Loud and Fincher may well be looked upon as the man who was screwed last year -- whether Dragon Tattoo snags anything in the upper categories beyond an adapted screenplay nom remains to be seen.
And this is where this entry borders upon the "who's actually going to get it" realm, leaving behind the sneaky sneaks. Thus, the rest of the Hollywood shuffle shall have to wait until Monday night.
No comments:
Post a Comment