Nomination Countdown

Last year I went 10 for 10 on the picture noms. I doubt I will have that success level this year considering the newly instated rule that there needn't be 10 nominees. We're living in the era of "up to 10" as the Academy slowly admits what a blunder expanding the picture category is. Thus calling precisely how many films will fit and who will be in that crowd is near impossible. I thought the best bet would be to name my classic 5 as the films I feel would be nominated in a legitimate year and then include expansions that will only be there as the picture nominees increase.

BEST PICTURE
The certain nominees seem...

The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
War Horse


Were things to expand to 7, I could see...

Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March


Were things to go to 8 or 9 -- which I highly doubt, I see a 7 cut off...

Extremely Loud Incredibly Close
Moneyball
-- DARK HORSE -- Bridesmaids (But I only see that if it's a full nine and Extremely Loud is absent.)

BEST DIRECTOR


Michael Hazavanacius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Wood Allen, Midnight in Paris
Steven Spielberg, War Horse


I know Fincher or Daldry could inch in here. I have a hard time seeing that happen. I believe Tate Taylor will go without a helmer nom. But I still see The Help as a viable option for Picture winner. The only absolute shocker I could see sneaking in is Malick. The Academy has done it before and might again in a year that seems desperate to prove American's are artists, too.

BEST ACTOR
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean du Jardin, The Artist
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Michael Fassbender, Shame


I could see Leo bumping Fassbender -- though as much as I love Leo and Clint, it's simply undeserved. I could also see the Gosling nomination being for Ides, but that's ludicrous to me. Albert Brooks is a solid nom for Drive and I see that being the picture of choice for Gosling. How I wish Owen Wilson or JGL were going to make it to the dance. They shan't -- or I shall jump for joy.

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin


I could see Rooney Mara come in and bump someone. Frankly, I feel like that person is Glenn as no one has see Albert Nobbs. The most vulnerable may appear to be Tilda -- partially because she's foreign, in a small film, and has won before -- but I think those things play as nice strengths. The dream of dreams would be a Kristin Wiig nom. I just don't see that happening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Albert Brooks, Drive
Kenneth Brannagh, My Week With Marilyn
Nick Nolte, Warrior


Nolte is my throwing it on the table a bit. But who else is it going to be? If Vigo carries his HFPA glory over -- and I saw and liked A Dangerous Method -- I would be surprised. If Hanks name arises here -- and there has been zero campaign -- look for Extremely to pepper the morning.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants


The wobbly one here is McTeer -- I could also see Chastain flopping pictures. These five seem to have the lead but one of them will fall to Melissa McCarthy. My guess is McTeer. The other four are in films that are simply too anchored.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Midnight in Paris
Bridesmaids
50/50
Young Adult (which may mean keep an eye out for Charlize, but I doubt it)
Win, Win


I could see Win, Win -- excellent as it is -- falling to The Artist. The Weinstein's are going the whole with that film. Not having a script nomination would be a stunner. If Win, Win and The Artist are there, Young Adult may get bumped.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Moneyball
The Descendants
Hugo
War Horse
The Help


I could see Drago Tattoo getting in here, particularly if Rooney and Fincher show. But I wonder. Giving Zallian two nominations (he'd share one for Moneyball) seems tough. I have more confidence in Eric Roth landing a nomination for Extremely Loud or one of the other kid movies snagging a nod. The one to bump is War Horse. I have a hard time seeing an adapted category without Lee Hall and Richard Curtis.

We will see in 9 hours and 17 minutes.