With the Director's Guild handing their award to Michael Hazanavicius and The Aritst team, it seems this year's silent victory may be inevitable. The lone possible snag is taking both trophies -- as HW did with last year's King's Speech -- was Martin Scorsese grabbing the director trophy for Hugo. I'd like to think this is still a possibility -- but when a foreign director walks into Hollywood and takes the DGA award from former nominees -- it gives the vibe that it's a done deal.
Tonight we have the SAG awards, driving us ever closer to the Oscar podium. In recent years, the level of agreement between the SAG award and the Oscar has increased to nigh on 100%.
Last year's winners went 4 for 4 at the Oscars and the ensemble winner was none other than King's Speech Handing all the trophies directly to the future Oscar winners.
The previous year was 4 for 4 again. Ensemble went to Inglorious Basterds but frankly the ensemble side of things only has an impact every now and then -- I'll dive into that in just a moment.
The year before that was 3 for 4 -- but is what I like to call a "false negative." At that point in the awards year, Kate was still a double nominee riding The Reader as the supporting horse to her Revolutionary Road win. By the time Oscar's noms were out, she had dropped Rev Road and was sitting pretty with a lead nomination for The Reader. She took an upgrade and the trophy. (I like to think of this as the Benicio reversal: del Toro won in the lead category for Traffic making it a certainty that he would take supporting at the Oscars for the same role.) Anyway, as a result of the Kate double noms in categories that wouldn't hold, Meryl won for Doubt. What's interesting is the contender status Ms. Streep has had for the past 30 years. She has not won an Oscar since 1982's Sophie's Choice. People get this impression that Meryl always wins -- but a lot of that is due to the fact that they're watching her rake in trophies at other ceremonies. Tonight will be the decider of whether Meryl is still in the running. She may well win tonight and lose on Oscar night -- though I have to say that her performance in The Iron Lady is remarkable. But if Viola Davis take is for The Help, tonight may well be it for the Streep.
The three-way horse race of actor comes to its conclusion for Brad Pitt if either Clooney or Jean du Jardin wins. It was incredibly gallant of Pitt to use this week to distance himself from Moneyball and to re-embrace The Tree of Life -- both of which are clear points of pride for him as a performer and producer. However, he didn't sink his teeth into the actor nomination and pound the pavement for people to get out there and see his film. This is so anathema to the way he acted about Babel. Perhaps he is an older man now and not driving to the hoop the way he used to -- but it seems the problem with Moneyball is that people either saw it a long time ago or they didn't see it at all. Clooney -- much as he is a double nom for Ides of March -- has let The Descendants train roll out of the station. Jean du Jardin is riding his grin and eyebrows all the way to the bank. He's touring the globe like he is an actual member of silent cinema and is a star of a new art form. It is absolutely insane -- and charming at the same time. If Pitt doesn't win tonight -- it's a two man game. If Clooney takes it -- he may have it. The question is whether the Clooney parade (that seems to march through Hollywood on a daily basis the way Mickey comes down Disney's main street) can top Harvey's spending spree.
Supporting Actor and Actress ought to lock it up and they ought to lock it up by capitalizing on the winners from the Globes. All signs point to Octavia Spencer and Christopher Plummer. A Spencer loss in unimaginable. Personally, the only person I see best Plummer is Nolte. There's a possibility that Albert Brooks takes it and then none of us can make any predictions whatsoever. But it seems that if this race were to actually open something up that would call Plummer certainty into question -- and his being nominated and winning has been something I have been talking about since before last year's Oscar telecast: it feels that fated -- the only person to do it is Nick. They both gave amazing performances and it's 90% odds on for Plummer. But if Nolte takes it, it's a shake up.
Ensemble looks like it's going to The Help. Whether it deserves it is a good question. Much as I love the other nominees -- I think it does deserve it. The Help winning is also what makes me wonder whether this thing can come through the back door and take picture the way Crash did. That victory was purely based on a large ensemble cast that had Hollywood support. I know The Help has been locked out at every step of the game -- but there is something the little man in my belly is telling me about not counting it out. This comes from the man who was dressed as a cowboy entering an Oscar Party all set to cheer for Brokeback when I had to cave and admit, "It's going to be Crash, isn't it." That was a shocker even though I saw it coming at the end -- and it was because it was a DVD presence. There's something about The Help being the one you throw on and enjoy that the other best pictures don't have.
If anything besides The Help wins ensemble tonight -- it only matters if it's The Artist. Should it be Bridesmaids -- which would also be fantastic -- it means SAG knows how to reward itself but it does nothing to shape the Oscar game.
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