In past years I used to through each of the pictures one at a time. I shan't be doing that this time around. And the reason is because that isn't the story of what's going on with this year's Academy Awards. The truth is that this thing is crazy with a capital "C," that rhymes with "T," that stands for "TEN." In my Oscar expert opinion, the expansion of the picture field has turned the awards schizophrenic. People may be out there saying, well -- doesn't that make for better television and isn't this whole thing just about audience size? Yes, You're right. People are really wondering what's going to happen tomorrow night rather than last year when the basic convo was...
"What's gonna win?"
"The Artist."
(Shoulders sag slightly) "Oh, yeah."
This Argo biz is actually interesting. I will give the Academy that. I just think that they haven't created drama as much as they've signaled that there are some serious kinks in their system. So, expand the audience all you want. Get the buzz out there. I'd just say there's a way to do that and have accurate awards. I would also say that there is a way to absolute redo the entire telecast and fix it in five seconds.
-Move all the technical awards out of the telecast. I love you - but it's a telecast.
-Move the lifetime achievements back in - but make them presented in an exciting way.
-Get the short categories out of the telecast. Replace them with awards like "Best First Film."
-Hire the producer of the BAFTAs.
That alone and you've at least got the late 80s/early 90s back, which were some damn good telecasts.
This year we are completely adrift.
I plan to continue blogging daily after this telecast. Hold me to it. I'll watch a film a day or talk about trends. But it will be daily -- and it may have a new address so I can begin using photos. During that daily blogging I'm really going to dig in to Oscar and make that the approach I take toward every single film blogged about. One of the key things I will speak about is 1998.
1998 was the year the studios had the best picture cocktail on overload. Not only was it the year that Shakespeare in Love robbed the Oscar from Saving Private Ryan and showed the world just what Harvey could do during award season -- it was a year where the five best pictures were just about two things: World War II and Elizabethan England -- two topics we've given MANY Oscars to. Look at the spread: Life is Beautiful, The Thin Red Line, Saving Private Ryan, Elizabeth, and Shakespeare in Love. I've said it once -- and I'll say it again -- the ensuing fight between Miramax and then the Weinstein Company against DreamWorks broke the system.
That trend has obviously not stopped. Certain films are made to win Oscars. Certain films are given automatic Oscar consideration. That will never change and has been since Doug Fairbanks & Co. set us off on this crazy bender.
Amazingly, during a time period where American is in at least two wars in the Middle East -- where we have not adequately awarded a film that accurately reflects the American experience abroad -- please with the Hurt Locker -- please -- in that pocket of time we have two remarkably directed, written, and acted films in Argo and Zero Dark Thirty.
It's an absolutely fair assessment to say that Argo is the crowd and fan favorite -- it has been since the weekend it was released. It seemed this time the world was going to make up for completely overlooking The Town -- save Jeremy Renner -- and proudly proclaim "Ben Affleck's all growns up." And what the hell -- we'll give Clooney and Heslov -- deserving film makers and cool dudes -- Oscars while we're at it. Handshakes and pack pats all around.
It's an absolutely palatable movie about Iran that has an amazing message about hope -- and man is it slaying people with the b.s. "this is a movie about the power of storytelling" line. Christ, if you can come up with a line half that good and half as applicable and get it rolling in each of your speeches. Well, you wouldn't be Mitt Romney.
Argo was Chicago. Movie ended, nearly everyone said, "So that sews up the Oscar race, huh?"
Somehow Lincoln got confused into the conversation. Probably because of what an amazing turn it is for Spielberg -- which I'll talk about in a separate article. The issue truly was "Are they actually going to give Ben Affleck a directing Oscar over Spielberg? Is that actually going to happen?"
And then, Christmas week, a little film called Zero Dark Thirty opened. The no questions asked best picture of the year. Period. Absolutely. Slam dunk. It's a winner. Call a cop. Zero Dark. Done. It suffered through a massive smear campaign from our government while the calm and collected -- perhaps too serene -- Kathyn Bigelow and the simply too genius Mark Boal. I feel like huge chunk of America -- including Academy members -- have refused to see Zero Dark Thirty because they have a skewed understanding of the content and politics of this incredible film. The thing's incredible and I'll give ZDT its due post Oscar.
The thing is -- Spielberg's nominated -- Bigelow and Affleck -- let alone Tom Hooper -- are NOT nominated. And the other thing is -- it's a done deal, Argo wins tomorrow night unless there's one of the sweetest upsets in the history of the Academy Awards -- again, 1998.
So let's talk about what's up, people. No Affleck. Why?
The director category is devoid of Ben Affleck for what sure as heck doesn't seem like a snub. Have you seen a town love a guy more? It's standing ovations and "gee, shucks" speeches all over this town -- all over the world! -- for this guy. So why the hell didn't he have the votes? He won the DGA and wasn't nominated for director? Get your house in order, Oscar! You're going to give him picture anyway? Are we honestly saying Ben Affleck isn't at least Kevin Costner? TATANKA?!
We haven't seen a picture go on to win without a nominated director since Driving Miss Daisy. Anytime you have Driving Miss Daisy as your historic Oscar reference point, you're doing something terribly wrong. I'm looking at you, Emmanuelle Riva (I'm joking, don't die. You're lovely, that movie is brutal).
We actually don't know what will happen tomorrow.
It could be...
Spielberg, Lincoln
Spielberg, Argo
Russell, Argo
Lee, Argo
That is insanity. We have NO idea what will happen with screenplay. And the amazing thing is every way you cut it, it's an upset.
If Life of Pi wins anything beyond effects or score, we're all going to be like "Holy shit! It's Ang Lee's Hugo." And the amazing thing is, it's simply a superior film. It's the unsung hero of this chaos. The last five minutes are beyond A.I. in my humble opine -- but like with the Spielberg masterpiece -- I forgive Ang. And here he is -- with a gorgeous film -- just gorgeous. Could be Ang Lee... though I see him behind David O. Russell.
If David O. Russell doesn't win screenplay or director, I will be stunned. What happens if he wins both? Is it still Argo?
If Chris Terrio takes screenplay and Argo wins picture it makes the lack of a director nomination that much more stupid.
If Spielberg and Lincoln win -- especially if that's coupled with a Tony Kushner script victory -- it will actually be an upset at this point. Even though everyone immediately deemed a Lincoln sweep what would take place the morning the nominations were announced. Somehow, after making an incredible film in Lincoln -- yes, yes, which I will speak about in a separate entry -- the position it has landed Spielberg in is "That's Ben Affleck's Oscar and it's yours to lose." How the hell is that the vibe we're sending this guy to the Oscars with? Somehow this under-sung master is routinely shafted at awards. No, he doesn't always win -- look it up. No, there not all popcorn movies -- look it up. It's not Spielberg's fault everyone was a lot crazier about his film the morning they screwed Ben Affleck than they may feel now that we've been officially introduced to Mr. Affleck's second act. But boy it sure as hell feels like it's starting to tip in that direction.
So yes, these awards are insane. I'm going to come through and attack specific categories before making my straight out predictions tomorrow.
Happy Oscar Weekend.
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