There's no point prolonging the inevitable... so let's get to what I would like to win and what actually will in this -- The Matthew J. McCue & Sebastian Equinox Picks for the 85th Annual Academy Awards...
In my dream scenario, the awards would be distributed as follows...
Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Director: Steven Spielberg
Actor: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Actress: Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Best Animated Feature: Wreck It Ralph
BUT WHAT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN...
I'm simply not taking the time to go through all the minor awards. I hope that Deakins wins, that Adele wins, that Life of Pi racks up what it can, and that there are some full-on, legitimate surprises. I want "upsets."
I think this year we're going to get a couple of upsets and I think they'll actually fall in the top nine -- hence those being the only ones where I listed my wishes...
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE...
The best animated feature of the year is Wreck It Ralph. Somehow, Brave has been winning awards all over the place -- so has Ralph. But this is the chance to give Tim Burton an Oscar. So I see this as Disney either congratulating themselves for yet another win with Brave and keeping the PIXAR streak at a max, or I see them handing it to the guy who showed them how much money there was in a new Alice in Wonderland -- you can thank him for Oz, too.
Why not give it to Tim for the feature version of the student film that made him a legend?
Are we going to wait until 20 years from now when Helena has to push him out in a black and white wheelchair, or are we going to give an Oscar to TIM BURTON now?
Tim better hope Brave loses.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Christ Terrio for Argo, David O. Russel for Silver Linings, Tony Kushner for Lincoln.
Tony should absolutely win. A win by any of these three may show a trend for the night as in -- "You bet your ass it's Argo." or "Holy shit, how many is Silver Linings going to win?" The only idea to compete with those is -- "Holy shit, could Lincoln hold?"
The last seems the most improbable.
I think this is Tony Kushner's to lose. I think that Spielberg did a brilliant job directing a brilliant -- albeit occasionally boring -- Tony Kushner play. And I think David O. Russell has edged him out.
A Christ Terrio victory would be just shy of a Precious level surprise.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It would be nice if Wes Anderson could win this. He won't.
It would be something else if Mark Boal were a guaranteed winner here.
But this one's a horse race between Zero Dark and Django.
My gut is saying things have tipped and it's Quentin's second. Mark Boal won for writing Hurt Locker. Unless we want to make him the Ruth Prawer Jhabvala of the modern Middle East pic. However, a Boal win would be lovely as it may be the only significant Zero Dark victory tonight.
The surprise here will be if Michael Haneke win. He could Almodovar this... but I doubt it -- highly.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is Anne Hathaway. I couldn't be happier.
An upset here would be psychotic.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Besides "Original Screenplay" which is my all time favorite because it is my life, there is the most historically heated category of all time -- "Best Supporting Actor."
This is where the dog fights happen.
This year, we've got one between Christoph Waltz and Tommy Lee Jones -- two previous winners. Normally that's something that can call the race. Not this time.
The power of Lincoln could drag TLJ along. But that seems to be stalling out.
Waltz's charming acceptance speeches and his sheer exuberance that all of this is happening to him -- again -- actually matters. The reason is because we were all going to see Django to see the movie we thought was going to bring Leo a supporting actor nomination. All from a couple of shots of DiCaprio with a coconut cocktail. But once you'd seen the Tarantino, it was hard to lie -- Waltz was the best actor in the film. Period. So what do we do now?
Well, it looks like you may well let him have it over the Hollywood veteran. Let Waltz get all Jason Robards up in here. I do think it may well be the case.
A Tommy Lee win means that Lincoln is still in play in every category.
BEST ACTRESS
Will be Jennifer Lawrence. This one is as close as Meryl and Viola -- no matter what anyone says. We can all think what we want, but we're not going to truly know it until the envelope opens. If David O. Russell is up two Oscars or DeNiro has a good night -- well, shit -- it'll be obvious. But if this thing is going to run a normal course, we won't know.
It will be Jennifer Lawrence. It's actually historic if it's Jessica Chastain. Wouldn't that be something?
ACTOR
Is no question Daniel Day.
How I wish there were a Bill Murray's chance in hell for Valjean... even a Bill Macy's... but there isn't. I'm sorry, Hugh. I love you. It is the performance of a lifetime. It is better than Daniel Day. You should win. You will lose.
We'll have more fun watching you tonight, guaranteed.
Await the Joycean D-Day speech where we lose our way in lyric.
BEST DIRECTOR
It will be Steven Spielberg and it should be.
David O. Russell would be a not too big surprise. I really think he may have it.
Ang Lee would be beyond shocking. And how many times are you going to win director and lose picture? Three?! (Yes, he won Foreign Language Film, but it's a directing award.)
It will be Spielberg's third for directing. One more and he's John Ford. Mission Accomplished.
BEST PICTURE
If everything goes Lincoln or Silver Linings way, they could upset the seemingly un-upsettable Argo.
I WOULD LOVE THIS.
If it's Silver Linings -- people are going to be "moveon.org" level mad. I'm not a fan of the film and I'm telling you it could happen.
If it's Lincoln, Spielberg will be pulling a reverse Shakespeare in Love and may well get booed.
It is only Argo. It has no director nominated. If that happens tonight, we watch Oscar's armor tear.
No comments:
Post a Comment