Here we are.
After all the waiting, nominated Angelinos are getting their morning coffee and anti-anxiety pills, swarmed by publicists and stylists, selecting the right outfit, the right quaff.
So how will it all go?
I humbly submit my sentimental predictions where I will -- admittedly -- present a combination of what I both expect and hope will occur this evening -- before we settle into a long March of half-baked movies awaiting the quality only May and beyond can bring.
And the winner is...?
Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland should win -- if The King's Speech takes it -- Christ, it might sweep.
Costume Design: Again, Alice in Wonderland -- again, if The King's Speech takes it -- Messiah, etc.
Makeup: The film only I saw on opening day -- The Wolfman.
Sound Editing, Sound Effects Editing, Visual Effects: All 3 will go to Inception, though True Grit took some sound awards just last week and this is often the haven of the Western or the War pic. But this time it seems the dream agents have it locked away. Any non-Nolan wins in these categories are straight-up snubs.
Original Score: As I said before this is one of "McCue's Telling Categories" -- true, a Trent Reznor Academy Award win is something none of us would have ever foreseen. Yes, we bring him "closer to God" -- but, closer to gold? That question never seemed possible. The fact that he is nominated as the cleaned-up score-ist of a Fincher-flick, all these many years past Se7en seems the only way this could come to pass. However, he did win the Golden Globe. And that often proves the kiss of death for musicians: these awards rarely align and it's highly possible Mr. Reznor and and Co-Scorer Atticus Ross will lose -- despite their excellent work.
Hans Zimmer's score for Inception is inspired and groundbreaking. But that buzz seems long faded.
Much as he would be a deserving winner the race is two-way: The Social Network or King's Speech.
Yes, this award will once again give us viewers an insight into which way this thing's tipping -- but this brings me back to Reznor and his surprising score success. This isn't David Byrne scoring The Last Emperor. This isn't Isham. This isn't Knopfler. And Alexandre Desplat is not some new man on the scene. This is Mr. Desplat's fourth nomination, having scored all of Wes Anderson's pictures, Benjamin Button, The Queen, The Ghost Writer, The Golden Compass (whose music was its lone redeeming quality), let alone New Moon, Julie and Julia, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows.
But will any of that matter? Musicians nominated a zillion times often become musicians who are nominated another zillion times before winning -- just ask Randy Newman or his cousin Thomas Newman, who I think is perhaps the most under-rated under-acknowledged composer out there.
Yes, I just spent that amount of time talking about score -- the fact is, it's a category I love and it's far more essential to the overall film than people credit. I leave it a telling toss-up with hopes of a Zimmer upset.
Original Song: Over the years this has become the most pathetic Oscar category as the movie industry seems to have lost all interest in throwing together "song scores" of significant, original, catchy -- or frankly just plan good songs. The category is basically dead -- which is remarkable considering how most record companies are controlled by the same conglomerates that own the studios. Much as I loved Annie Lennox' "Into the West," the fact of the matter is the last significant song to win was Eminem's "Lose Yourself."
Grasp at all the straws you like, but Hustle and Flow, The Motorcycle Diaries, are far cries from "Let the River Run," "Take My Breath Away," "Streets of Philadelphia" or "My Heart Will Go On." The studios have left this ship to small films like Once and Crazy Heart. Frankly, I do not understand why.
But the question is, who's winning this year -- out of the collection of songs few of us have heard. With the exception of the "Coming Home" from Country Strong, the other three nominees have all won. Newman for Monsters, Inc., Rahman for Slumdog, and Alan Menken has -- that's right -- 8 Oscars.
Folks are talking about Rahman taking it for 127 Hours -- but I think it's Randy Newman's second. "We Belong Together" is no "I Love to See You Smile" or "You Got A Friend In Me" ... but the TS3 love should spill over to its musical maestro.
Cinematography: I firmly think Roger Deakins finally gets his due for True Grit.
Editing: While The Social Network is the odds on favorite -- and I think it will pull it out -- Black Swan could be the upset here. Especially if The Swan also snags Cinematography.
Foreign Film: Though early buzz seems to think there is nothing like a Dane, I'd actually be surprised if Biutiful -- depressant of audiences the world over -- didn't bring Inarritu a golden boy. Oscar already likes him -- this may be a chance to trophy the man.
Documentary Feature: The Inside Job seems to have it -- much as Exit Through the Gift Shop would be a delight.
I'm not even going to pretend to know what's going on in the short categories.
And now the great big biggies...
I'm going out on a limb with a few of these. Go ahead and judge.
Original Screenplay: Christopher Nolan, Inception
Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Supporting Actor: While it looks like Christian Bale has it in the bag for Fighter -- I see a Geoffrey Rush upset as a true possibility -- particular if Harvey has this thing in the bag.
Supporting Actress: I see True Grit's little Hailee Steinfeld as the upset of the evening. Melissa Leo is in the prime position of having previously locked a lead actress nom for a small movie and carefully playing her cards into a stellar supporting role. And perhaps it's my Fighter blindspot combined with my love of a young lady taking home an Oscar -- I'm looking at you, Anna Paquin -- but I smell an upset.
Actor: Is there a question? That reminds me -- I should go buy some Prosecco or something.
Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Picture: The King's Speech buzz has gone straight on through the roof seemingly having slain The Social Network despite all its early victories. It also softens the blow when both Sorkin and Fincher seemingly have it in the bag. But I still think this is a MAJOR MAJOR MAJOR toss up and we're simply not going to know until the envelope opens.
The King's Speech? The Social Network? True Grit? -- yes, I'm that crazy.
I truly don't know.
My hope -- regardless of The King's majestic simplicity -- is The Net -- since a deserved Inception upset seems impossible.
We'll see in about 12 hours!
- Matthew J. McCue
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