As long as those in charge of the Oscar telecast don't do something astronomically stupid and decide to distribute the awards in some weirdo fashion where they lump certain categories together and suddenly we're stuck in some (much as I love him) Bill Condon relaunch of the greatest show on earth, odds are that the early awards of the evening may well tip Oscars hand and show us all where Best Picture -- and a slew of other awards are headed.
Since The King's Speech victory at SAG and since The Coen Brothers' True Grit has entered the race in a game-changing fashion, it's made many skeptical as to whether David Fincher's The Social Network will prevail. But we might not have to wait until the end of the night to find out.
Traditionally, the Oscars either start with one of the supporting actor categories or with Art Direction.
I can remember to this day how Schindler's List took Art Direction right off the bat, leaving many deserving period pieces in its wake, and signaling to the folks at home, that we were going to hear a lot of sad violin music as tuxedoed gents made their way to the podium over and over.
As I mentioned -- your only other option -- unless these knuckleheads mess with tradition -- is a supporting category.
So let's take a look at this thing: Art Direction sports The King's Speech, not The Social Network -- you're not very well going to nominate someone for picking out the right student apartment, bike room, or conference table -- so this is by no means a King's Speech triumph. However, the other pictures in the category: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Inception, Alice in Wonderland, and True Grit. If the King's Speech nabs this award right off the bat -- the show could be said and done. As much as there was CGI up the wazoo, Harry, Alice, and Inception (my personal fave) were replete with art direction and set design. If True Grit takes it -- well, well, we may have a three-way race.
But let's say they start with either of the supporting categories -- both of which seem deadlocks for The Fighter. If either of those trophies goes any direction but Leo Bale-ville -- we once again have a horse race on our hands.
At the beginning of the year it was my assumption that Helena Bonham Carter was finally going to get her Oscar, not simply for playing the Queen Mum so dang well, but because she also made a Harry Potter movie and played The Queen of Hearts in her hubby's Alice. Yes, her King's Speech role is smaller and may not be the crowning achievement (that's right, I said it!) of her career -- but it's an excellent role in what's basically a three-hander. However, I have to admit that the best female performance of the year -- except for my dear sweet Annette -- is Hailee Steinfeld. She could damn well win that award, once again announcing a three-way race. A Melissa Leo win tells us nothing about the evening.
Bale winning also tells us nothing. Should he lose to Geoffrey Rush -- it may be as telling as an art direction win. Harvey got lots of people oscars for Shakespeare in Love. Somehow he didn't get a nomination for Joseph Fiennes. Geoffrey Rush -- my favorite part of the film -- lost to James Coburn in one of those -- what are you going to do, he's old -- situations. If Harvey's clout is able to land Mr. Rush a deserved supporting Oscar in a season of uninterrupted Bale wins -- Oscar may be for England!
I won't waste your time going through every damn category and explaining how they will tell all. But let me give a quick shot of the key categories to keep an eye on:
Cinematography
Costume
Editing
Score
If King's Speech nabs Art Direction and any of the above. Mr. Fincher may walk away the very happy winning director whose film didn't take the prize.
It seems like this may finally be the year Oscar awards Roger Deakins for the zillion films he has made look marvelous for the Coens. Westerns are often a place to right cinematography wrongs. And they're also a place where a victory is not a picture indicator -- just ask John Toll.
Score -- for some reason in my little Oscar gut, Edward G. Robinson "little man" kind of way -- is the tell-all for me. Maybe it's because I actually sit home listening to Kundun on a regular basis. Maybe it's because I wander the city listening to the score from The Hours just to give my day a greater sense of immediacy. Maybe it's because I blast Scent of a Woman just to make cleaning my kitchen feel more triumphant. And I know editing rarely splits with picture -- but it may this year -- particularly because The Swan doesn't stand a chance at picture (famous last words). But the Alexandre Desplat/Trent Reznor head to head -- which will be a mid-show award -- may well tell us all the ending of the tale should Inception take art direction and the Fighter folk hold their footing.
God bless this damn show.
- Matthew J. McCue
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